In the 2020 presidential race, Joe Biden emerged as the electability candidate, promising to win over white working-class voters who had previously supported Donald Trump. However, recent New York Times/Siena College polls conducted from October 22 to November 3 indicate a significant shift in the political landscape, with Trump leading Biden in five out of six battleground states crucial for securing the presidency.
Trump’s current lead of 48% to 44% among registered voters across these states poses a challenge for Biden. Widespread discontent and doubts about Biden’s ability to perform his presidential duties have eroded his support, particularly among young, Black, and Hispanic voters. In the latest polls, Biden barely leads among nonwhite voters under 45, a group that had previously backed him by a substantial margin. Trump has managed to cut Biden’s lead among nonwhite voters in half, gaining unexpected support from this demographic.
One striking development is Trump’s unprecedented 20% support among Black voters, a shift that could mark a significant change in American politics, disrupting established patterns and polarizations. Biden’s support remains stable among older white voters, allowing him to maintain competitiveness in certain battleground states.
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The challenge for Biden lies in his weakened standing on personal likability, temperament, and character, qualities that were pivotal to his victories in these states in 2020. The electorate’s view of Biden has deteriorated across demographic groups, especially among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, who are now more inclined to support Trump.
Despite these challenges, there is still a possibility for Biden to reassemble his winning coalition. The polls indicate that Biden could regain his lead by reinvigorating traditional Democratic constituencies, especially young and nonwhite voters. A hypothetical scenario without Biden shows an unnamed generic Democrat leading Trump by 8 points, emphasizing the potential for a Democratic victory.
Even Vice President Kamala Harris, while trailing Trump by 3 points in a hypothetical matchup, fares slightly better than Biden. However, Biden’s challenge lies in winning back the Kamala-not-Joe voters, a group skeptical of his presidency. These voters, comprising nonwhite and younger individuals, are hesitant to support Biden due to concerns about his handling of the presidency, the economy, and the nation’s state.
Biden’s problems are not ideological; instead, they stem from doubts about his ability to address national challenges effectively. More than half of the Kamala-not-Joe voters believe Biden’s reelection would make no difference or be bad for the nation. Concerns about Biden’s age and the economy dominate the voters’ minds, overshadowing issues like abortion and democracy.
Historically, incumbent presidents have managed to rally their base, especially with the help of a growing economy and a polarizing campaign. Biden’s campaign faces the task of refocusing voters on critical issues like preserving democracy and abortion rights. Whether Biden can overcome concerns about his age and the economy, and effectively convey the Democratic message, might ultimately determine the outcome of the election.
