As the 2024 campaign heats up, experts on extremism fear the threat of politically motivated violence will only intensify.
In a disturbing turn of events, the man who attacked former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband with a hammer last year was fueled by a steady diet of right-wing conspiracy theories. The assault occurred less than two weeks before the midterm elections.
As the 2024 presidential campaign gains momentum, experts on extremism express growing concerns about the escalating threat of politically motivated violence. From infamous theories like “Pizzagate” to QAnon and “Stop the Steal,” conspiracy theories vilifying Donald Trump’s adversaries are not only persisting but evolving and spreading as the 2024 Republican nominee eyes a return to the White House.
According to Jacob Ware, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations specializing in domestic terrorism, these once-fringe ideologies are now infiltrating American society on a massive scale. Ware states, “No longer are these conspiracy theories and very divisive and vicious ideologies separated at the fringes.”
The recent conviction of David DePape for the attack on Paul Pelosi underscores the real-world consequences of these theories. DePape, who was found guilty by a federal jury, revealed that his assault was driven by intentions to hold Nancy Pelosi hostage and inflict harm if he perceived dishonesty regarding his beliefs in government corruption.
DePape’s online rhetoric before the attack echoed QAnon tenets, a conspiracy theory linked to various crimes and violence. The core belief of QAnon revolves around the idea that Trump has sought to expose a Satan-worshipping, child sex trafficking cabal within prominent Democrats and Hollywood elites.
Former President Trump’s amplification of social media accounts promoting QAnon has contributed to its mainstream presence within Republican politics. The Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, witnessed many participants endorsing QAnon’s apocalyptic beliefs.
Before QAnon, the debunked “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory gained traction among Trump supporters, alleging a child sex trafficking ring run by prominent Democrats out of a nonexistent basement in a Washington pizzeria. This theory led to a North Carolina man being sentenced to prison for firing a rifle inside the restaurant in 2017.
In his 2024 campaign, Trump has escalated his combative rhetoric, making jokes about the hammer attack on Paul Pelosi and even suggesting that retired Gen. Mark Milley should be executed for treason.
Threats against lawmakers and election officials have become rampant, crossing political lines. A California man is awaiting trial on charges of plotting to kill Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, a Trump nominee.
Despite Trump’s loss in the 2020 election, the influence of QAnon and its conspiracy theories persists, adapting to current events. The movement’s leaderless nature allows it to absorb beliefs from other conspiracy theories.
Sheehan Kane, data collection manager for the University of Maryland-based Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), notes the challenges in predicting who might mobilize based on a conspiracy theory. Kane states, “It’s been really good at evolving with the times and current events.”
DePape, the assailant in the Paul Pelosi attack, testified that his interest in right-wing conspiracy theories began with GamerGate, an online harassment campaign against feminists in the video game industry. This highlights a pattern of radicalization originating from online spaces.
Brianna Wu, one of GamerGate’s original targets, sees a clear connection between GamerGate and politically motivated attacks. Wu emphasizes that this radicalization is not confined to a specific political ideology but is a broader issue requiring a policy response.
DePape’s testimony revealed his intent to interrogate Nancy Pelosi about Russian interference in the 2016 election, wearing an inflatable unicorn costume while recording it for online dissemination. He also mentioned additional targets, including a women’s and queer studies professor at the University of Michigan, influenced by conservative commentators.
Experts on extremism argue that the mainstreaming of false, bigoted, and harmful ideas across various media platforms, coupled with lax content moderation on social media, contributes to the accessibility of extremist ideologies.
Brian Hughes, associate director of the Polarization and Extremism Research and Innovation Lab at American University, highlights the role of a growing “conspiracy-creating cottage industry” that exploits extreme rhetoric for financial gain or to widen their audience.
Amarnath Amarasingam, an extremism researcher and professor at Queen’s University in Canada, describes conspiracy theories as alluring, drawing susceptible individuals into complete immersion. He notes that these theories provide believers with a scapegoat for their troubles and a “moral mission” to address perceived injustices.
Experts caution that American election years often witness increased violence, whether in response to a candidate’s identity or unfavorable results. Jacob Ware of the Council on Foreign Relations anticipates such incidents in 2024, given Trump’s return to the ballot and ongoing legal battles, which could amplify politicized rhetoric and potentially lead to more extremist violence.
To mitigate the risk of violence, experts recommend dialing down the temperature of political rhetoric and keeping a vigilant eye on individuals who may be on a path toward radicalization. Brian Hughes emphasizes the intoxicating nature of conspiracy theory material, likening it to a public health problem that demands a shift in perspective.
*This detailed report highlights the alarming convergence of conspiracy theories, political violence, and the challenges posed by the online radicalization of individuals. As the 2024 campaign intensifies, the nation faces a pressing need to address the escalating threats and potential consequences of extremist ideologies.*
