Surprising turn of events, President Joe Biden finds himself in a historically low polling position for a Democratic candidate, according to recent analysis by CNN’s senior data reporter, Harry Enten. Biden is currently trailing Republican candidate Donald Trump by three points in an aggregate of national polls, marking a significant departure from the usual Democratic lead seen in early July.
The last time a Republican candidate led in early July general election polls was back in 2000, with George Bush ahead of Democratic Vice President Al Gore. Since then, Democratic candidates have consistently held the upper hand in similar polls, with John Kerry in 2004, Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Biden himself leading in 2020.
Reflecting on the polling data, Biden recalled similar skepticism during his 2020 campaign when pundits doubted his chances. “I remember them telling me the same thing in 2020—I can’t win, the polls show I can’t win. Remember in 2020, ‘the red wave’ was coming. Before the vote, I said that’s not going to happen, we’re gonna win,” Biden remarked in an interview with ABC News’s George Stephanopoulos.
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Harry Enten highlighted the significance of Trump’s lead, noting, “There wasn’t a single poll that met CNN standards for publication that ever had Donald Trump ahead in 2020, and now you have a slew of them and the average, of course, definitely has Donald Trump ahead.”
The decline in Biden’s polling numbers comes on the heels of a lackluster performance in the first presidential debate on June 27, where he faced criticism for appearing fatigued and struggling with responses. This performance has sparked debates within the Democratic Party about Biden’s viability as their candidate for the upcoming election.
Despite these challenges, Biden remains committed to his candidacy. In a letter to congressional Democrats, Biden emphasized his determination to stay in the race, stating, “I wouldn’t be running again if I did not absolutely believe I was the best person to beat Donald Trump.”
However, Biden’s declining poll numbers have raised concerns about his ability to secure a second term. His approval ratings have fluctuated amid various domestic and international challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and economic issues.
As the election approaches, both Biden and Trump will need to strategize to win over undecided voters and solidify their bases. The outcome will hinge on their performances in upcoming debates and their ability to address key voter concerns.
While the current polling data provides a snapshot of voter sentiment, it’s important to note that opinions can shift rapidly in response to new developments and campaign efforts. The 2024 presidential race is poised to be fiercely contested, with both candidates aiming to secure the trust and support of the American electorate.
