As President Joe Biden celebrated his 81st birthday on Monday, he received unwelcome gifts in the form of polling data indicating struggles against his likely opponent, Donald Trump, who, at 77, is three and a half years younger. Despite concerns about age, Trump seems to be gaining popularity among key voter segments, as revealed in the November US Election Watch Report by the Morning Consult polling organization.
The report noted Trump’s progress among crucial demographics, including Black, Hispanic, and young Americans, as well as independents. “Throughout 2023, Trump has made up ground with Joe Biden in our head-to-head tracking by improving his margins” among these groups, the report stated.
NBC reported on Sunday that Biden’s approval rating hit its lowest point at 40%, with Biden trailing Trump for the first time in a hypothetical general-election match-up, though within the margin of error for an election over 11 months away.
Despite facing 91 criminal charges, including election subversion and hush-money payments, Trump’s unconventional rhetoric and gaffes haven’t prevented him from closing in on the polls. He continues to garner support even as concerns about his age persist.
The NBC report highlighted Biden’s challenges regarding economic conditions at home and foreign policy decisions, particularly his stance on Israel in its conflict with Hamas. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt attributed Biden’s low approval to foreign policy actions, stating, “Joe Biden is at a uniquely low point in his presidency.”
Republican Bill McInturff called the poll a “stunner,” emphasizing the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on Biden’s standing.
Horwitt, however, sees opportunities for Biden to regain support, pointing to unpredictable events and the ongoing Trump trials. He said, “Jury verdicts in Trump’s trials, unforeseen events both foreign and domestic, and the rigours of a campaign all have a funny way of upending what may be true today.”
Despite these challenges, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg offered a more optimistic outlook in his birthday message to Biden. He dismissed fears of a Republican midterm “red wave” and expressed confidence about winning the presidential election next year, citing issues within the Republican party and significant swings in battleground states.
Rosenberg also referenced a “terrible” New York Times poll showing Trump ahead in battleground states but remained optimistic, emphasizing the dynamic nature of political landscapes.
The Biden campaign and its surrogates echo this optimism. Democratic operative Donna Brazile drew parallels to historical comebacks, stating, “Don’t count out Joe Biden.” As the presidential race unfolds, unforeseen developments may reshape the political landscape, making predictions challenging at this stage.
