WASHINGTON (AP) — In a decisive display of Donald Trump’s enduring influence over the Republican Party, Iowa Republicans emphatically handed the former president a victory on Monday night. Reflecting the party’s ideological shift further to the right, particularly on cultural and immigration issues, the outcome underscores Trump’s continued grip on the GOP.
As reported by AP VoteCast, a survey of over 1,500 voters participating in the caucuses revealed that approximately 9 in 10 voters expressed a desire for significant upheaval or change in the government’s operations. This victory solidifies Trump’s position as the dominant figure within the party, with voters echoing his perspective that President Joe Biden’s actions have been a “disaster.”
Despite the clear-cut win in Iowa, it’s noteworthy that historically, Iowa has not played a decisive role in determining the Republican nominee. New Hampshire, with its primary just eight days away, often brings surprises and upsets, as witnessed in previous election cycles.
Trump’s campaign approach in Iowa was distinctive, characterized by minimal travel to the state, a modest number of rallies, and the avoidance of candidate debates. The former president, treating his campaign more like an incumbent, preferred to attend court hearings as a defendant in his legal cases in New York and Washington, signaling his eagerness to move quickly to the general election.
Looking ahead, New Hampshire presents a potential challenge for Trump’s rivals, with its more moderate and highly educated electorate. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, aiming for a strong showing, anticipates that New Hampshire could serve as a corrective force following the Iowa caucuses.
While Trump remains a dominant favorite among Republican voters, the road ahead may hold twists and turns. The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on Feb. 8 in a case challenging whether a constitutional clause applies to Trump, barring those who “engaged in insurrection” from holding office. The court may also weigh in on whether presidential immunity shields Trump from federal charges related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election loss.
Intriguingly, the Iowa caucuses revealed that voters’ top concern was immigration, surpassing issues such as the economy, taxes, and business regulations. Despite two-thirds of caucusgoers feeling that their finances were stable or improving, a significant portion desired major changes in how the federal government operates.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, previously seen as a potential threat to Trump, faced a disappointing return on investment in the 2024 Republican presidential contest. Despite substantial advertising spending, DeSantis found himself in a tight race for second place with Haley. Negative stories about extravagant spending, including a preference for private planes, contributed to his challenges.
Moreover, an education divide within the GOP emerged, with over half of Haley’s and DeSantis’ voters having at least a college degree, while only about 2 in 10 of Trump’s supporters did. This division hints at a potential vulnerability for Trump in the general election, given the increasing share of the voting public with a bachelor’s degree.
Finally, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s bid for the White House, marked by a millennial distillation of Trump’s MAGA movement, faced significant challenges. His abrasive and often grating style, while initially attention-grabbing, appeared to wear thin, with Ramaswamy trailing behind Trump, Haley, and DeSantis in Iowa’s caucus results.
