In the latest findings from Emerson College Polling, former President Donald Trump has taken a slight lead over President Joe Biden by 1 point in a theoretical rematch of the 2020 election.
The poll discloses that Trump has the support of 46%, while Biden closely trails at 45%.
In a comparison with the December poll, Trump’s lead has seen a marginal decrease, shifting from 47% to 43% in favor of Trump.
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When third-party contenders Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein are introduced, Trump’s lead over Biden expands to 2 points (41% to 39%). Kennedy secures 5%, while Stein and West each receive 1%.
In a three-way scenario involving Biden, Trump, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Trump’s lead increases to 5 points over Biden (42% to 37%), with 12% supporting Haley and 10% undecided.
However, in a direct match between Biden and Haley, the former South Carolina governor leads narrowly at 38% to 37%, with 25% expressing uncertainty.
Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling’s executive director, stressed that Haley’s strong showing in specific New Hampshire demographics may not necessarily translate to national support. Nationally, Haley commands 30% support among college-educated voters, while Trump leads with about 58%. Among voters over 50, Haley secures 21% support, with Trump enjoying a commanding lead at 73%.
As the leading contender for the GOP presidential nomination, Trump has won both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. Emerson’s results show that 73% of Republican primary voters favor Trump as their 2024 nominee, with 19% supporting Haley.
Regarding Haley’s candidacy, 53% of Republican voters believe she should withdraw, while 34% think she should continue her campaign. Another 13% express neutrality.
The poll highlights crucial issues influencing voter preferences. Voters most concerned about the economy overwhelmingly support Trump over Biden by a margin of 52% to 36%. On immigration, Trump dominates with 81% support, while Biden receives 14%.
In the Democratic Party primary, Biden maintains strong support, with 72% of voters backing him. Other candidates like Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson each receive 4% support, with 19% undecided. Kimball notes Biden’s increased support among Democratic primary voters, with undecided voters decreasing from 30% to 19%, and his share of support rising from 63% to 72%.
On the approval front, the Emerson poll indicates a slight improvement for Biden. His job approval rating increased by 1 point to 42%, while his disapproval rating improved by 5 points, decreasing from 51% to 46%. Kimball emphasizes a positive shift among independent voters, where Biden’s approval increased by 4 points since December, rising from 33% to 37%. Although still facing challenges, this reflects a positive trend, with disapproval among independents decreasing from 52% to 45%.
The Emerson College Polling survey, conducted from January 26 to 29 among 1,260 registered voters, has a margin of error of plus-minus 2.7 percentage points.
