Recent national poll conducted by Bendixen & Amandi has shed light on the current standings of President Joe Biden and other potential Democratic contenders for the 2024 presidential election. Commissioned after Biden’s debated performance and exclusively shared with POLITICO, the poll offers a detailed look into voter sentiments as the next election cycle approaches.
Close Race Between Biden and Trump
According to the POLITICO report on Tuesday, July 9, the poll indicates a tight race between Biden and former President Donald Trump, with Biden slightly trailing at 42 percent to Trump’s 43 percent among likely voters. This narrow margin underscores the competitive nature of the upcoming election.
Concerns About Biden’s Fitness for Office
One of the most concerning revelations for Biden is the perception of his mental and physical capacity to serve another term. Only 29 percent of respondents believe he has the necessary stamina, while 61 percent express doubts. Additionally, 52 percent of voters think Biden should not continue as the Democratic nominee, highlighting internal divisions within the party regarding his candidacy.
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Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton as Contenders
Vice President Kamala Harris emerges as a potential contender, leading Trump by a slim margin of 42 percent to 41 percent. Surprisingly, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is not actively discussed as a candidate, holds a slight advantage over both Harris and Trump, leading 43 percent to 41 percent.
Democratic Ticket Combinations
The poll also explored various Democratic ticket combinations, revealing that a Clinton-Harris pairing demonstrates the strongest performance against Trump, with a four-point lead at 43 percent to 40 percent over the Biden-Harris ticket. This scenario indicates a possible shift in voter preferences towards experienced leadership.
Insights from Pollster Fernand Amandi
Fernand Amandi, the seasoned pollster behind the survey, highlights the significant concerns among Democrats regarding Biden’s age and fitness for office. Despite these concerns, Biden remains competitive against Trump, though vulnerabilities in his candidacy are apparent. Amandi also notes the unexpected strength of Hillary Clinton in the poll, suggesting a latent openness among voters to her potential return to national politics.
Performance of Other Potential Democratic Contenders
The poll provides mixed results for other potential Democratic contenders. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails Trump slightly at 37 percent to 40 percent, while Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer lags further behind at 36 percent to 40 percent against the former president.
Electorate’s Desire for Experienced Leadership
Anthony Williams, special projects director at Bendixen & Amandi, underscores the electorate’s desire for experienced leadership, as reflected in the favorable reception towards candidates with international experience like Clinton.
Conclusion: A Competitive Electoral Landscape
The survey of 1,000 likely November voters, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent, provides critical insights into voter sentiments amid growing pressure within the Democratic Party for Biden to consider stepping aside. As discussions intensify within Democratic circles about the future of the party’s leadership, the poll’s findings indicate a pivotal moment in shaping the narrative and strategies leading up to the 2024 presidential election.
The dynamics revealed in the poll not only reflect current voter preferences but also pose critical questions about the direction of Democratic leadership and the potential impact of experienced candidates like Hillary Clinton in a closely contested race.
