A recent poll has sparked fresh debate about the 2024 U.S. presidential election, revealing a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. According to the latest data published by Newsweek and released by ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight on August 3, 2024, Harris currently leads Trump by 1.5 percentage points in the national polling average.
The data shows Harris with 45% support from voters, while Trump trails at 43.5%. This represents a significant shift from the performance of President Joe Biden, who trailed Trump by over 3 points before stepping down from the race on July 21. The adjustment in FiveThirtyEight’s methodology, which aligns polls with likely voter turnout, indicates Harris’s lead might be slightly more pronounced without these adjustments.
As of Saturday afternoon, Harris’s 1.5-point lead is consistent, reflecting a notable change from earlier polls. Trump, who was confirmed as the Republican presidential nominee last month, saw a boost in favorability following an assassination attempt on July 13 and the subsequent Republican National Convention. This increase in support came alongside growing calls for Biden to withdraw from the race, which he did, endorsing Harris in his place.
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Since launching her campaign, Harris has experienced a positive shift in her polling numbers. Aggregation site Race to the White House shows Harris with 47% and Trump at 46.9%, marking the first time this year that Harris has surpassed Trump in the polling average. Additionally, RMG Research’s recent survey shows Harris leading Trump in the national popular vote by 5 points.
Despite Harris’s lead in the popular vote, election analyst Nate Silver highlights Trump’s stronger position in the Electoral College. Silver’s model predicts a 54.9% chance for Trump to win the Electoral College compared to Harris’s 44.6%. Conversely, Harris has a 53.5% chance of winning the popular vote, while Trump’s chances are at 46.5%.
Key battleground states remain crucial in this election. Harris is slightly favored in Michigan with a 54% chance compared to Trump’s 46%. Wisconsin is a dead heat, with both candidates at 50%. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a narrow edge with a 53% chance versus Harris’s 47%. Trump also leads in other swing states, including Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.
As the 2024 presidential race progresses, these polling numbers will be pivotal in shaping campaign strategies and voter perceptions. Harris’s early lead and positive momentum suggest a competitive race ahead, with both candidates focusing intensely on securing crucial electoral votes in key states.
With the election nearing, attention will increasingly center on how each campaign addresses voter concerns and navigates the shifting landscape of American politics.
