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A significant shift in the U.S. election landscape occurred Monday, as the DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model moved from a “toss up†to “lean Trump†for the first time. This change reflects the increasing likelihood of Donald Trump winning the upcoming presidential election, with new data indicating a narrowing lead or complete evaporation of Kamala Harris’ previous advantage.
Fresh polling across critical battleground states now shows Trump with a slight edge, positioning him ahead in many states crucial to the election outcome. According to the model, Trump is predicted to win in 62.4% of simulations, up from 59.8% last week, signaling that momentum is in the former president’s favor.
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Swing State Dynamics and Key Polls
Several recent polls suggest that Harris’ national lead is dwindling, and the latest state polls show Trump pulling ahead. For instance, New York Times polls reveal Trump holding a 5 to 6-point lead in Arizona, while Harris maintains a 3 to 4-point lead in Pennsylvania. In contrast, a Redfield and Wilton survey places Trump two points ahead in Pennsylvania, signaling mixed but generally favorable trends for the former president.
Callum Hunter, a data scientist at J.L. Partners, emphasized that despite some strong polling for Harris, Trump’s consistent gains in other states are driving the overall shift toward him. “The model uses correlations along with national vote shares to average each state’s data, meaning every poll has ripple effects on others,†Hunter explained.
Electoral College Forecast
As the election nears, the model forecasts Trump to secure 312 Electoral College votes, compared to Harris’ 226, leaving both candidates vying for the critical 270 votes needed for victory. Despite Trump’s lead, Harris remains competitive, with a nearly 40% chance of winning, which means the race remains one of the tightest in modern history.
Key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina are expected to play a pivotal role in determining the final outcome. While Pennsylvania was the deciding state in 40% of the simulations last week, that figure has dropped to 36%, with Michigan and North Carolina also becoming decisive territories.
Swing States Shifting in Trump’s Favor
Among the most significant state shifts, Nevada has moved 3.1 points toward Trump, giving him a 60.5% probability of victory. Meanwhile, Arizona continues to solidify in Trump’s favor, with an increase of 2.6 points keeping it in the “likely Trump†column.
Georgia has also shown slight movement toward Trump, who now holds a 72.3% chance of victory there. In Michigan, a crucial battleground, Trump’s position has improved by 2.1 points, though it remains a tight contest.
Final Stretch: Everything to Play For
As the campaign heads into its final three weeks, both candidates are expected to ramp up their efforts. Harris, once enjoying a polling bump following her entry into the race, now faces increasing challenges as Trump’s momentum continues to build.
With the race tightening and both candidates fighting for every vote, the final weeks of campaigning will be crucial. The election model, now firmly in Trump’s favor, underscores the unpredictable nature of this historic race, with everything still to play for before voters head to the polls.
