As the 2024 presidential race heats up, former President Donald Trump is urging voters to evaluate whether they are better off now compared to four years ago. This reflection inevitably brings up the tumultuous events of 2020, a year marked by the devastating impact of COVID-19, economic upheaval, and significant loss of life. Understanding the contrast between then and now offers insight into Trump’s campaign narrative and the current economic landscape.
A Year of Loss and Economic Strain
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected life expectancy, which fell by 1.8 years due to the virus, making it a leading cause of death in the United States. During this period, the economy faced one of its worst declines, with gross domestic product (GDP) plummeting at an annual rate of 28% in the second quarter. Although there was a remarkable recovery later that year, the economy remained smaller at the end of Trump’s presidency than at the end of 2019.
To fairly assess his record, Trump might prefer to compare current data to 2019, the year before the pandemic struck. Economists note that many aspects of the economy today mirror those of 2019, highlighting the success of bipartisan efforts to prevent a health crisis from spiraling into a severe economic catastrophe.
Economic Growth: A Positive Trend
Recent data shows that the economy continues to grow, currently 11.5% larger than it was at the end of 2019 when Trump’s economic policies were in effect. Inflation-adjusted GDP has grown steadily, with output increasing by 2.66% in the year from the third quarter of 2023 to the same period in 2024. This growth rate is comparable to that of the pre-COVID era, where the economy expanded by 2.8% from 2018 to 2019.
Inflation: A Sticking Point for Voters
Inflation has emerged as a significant concern for many Americans. Prices surged sharply between 2021 and 2022, reaching levels not seen since the 1980s. Trump has made inflation a focal point of his campaign, a theme that Democrat Kamala Harris has struggled to counter, despite recent declines in inflation rates. While policymakers celebrate the achievement of “disinflation” without severe impacts on employment, the average consumer’s experience remains mixed, with high prices continuing to affect daily life.
Rising Incomes Amid Inflation
Interestingly, average incomes have kept pace with inflation. Data shows that inflation-adjusted income per person is about 10% higher now than it was in the third quarter of 2019. However, the perception of rising costs remains a concern for many consumers. Economic surveys indicate that even if wages increase, high prices overshadow the positive effects of those gains. This discontent underscores the challenge both parties face in addressing voter sentiments.
Unemployment Rates: A Success Story
One area where the economy has shown resilience is the unemployment rate. The labor market was robust during Trump’s presidency and continued to rebound under Biden. From 2022 to 2024, the average unemployment rate has been slightly lower than in the pre-pandemic years, illustrating a successful recovery despite the pandemic’s initial disruption.
Wealth Growth Post-COVID
For Americans who invest in the stock market or own homes, the post-COVID years have generally increased household net worth. However, it is essential to note that not all citizens benefit equally from economic growth. The wealth accumulation remains a more nuanced issue, with many households still feeling the effects of high inflation.
Understanding the Misery Index
Politicians often use the combination of unemployment and inflation rates, known as the Misery Index, to critique their opponents. Currently, the index is comparable to levels seen during much of Trump’s pre-COVID administration. This historical perspective may play a crucial role as voters assess the performance of both Trump and Harris in the upcoming election.
