Back in 2016, a flood of headlines, political talk shows, and so-called experts warned the world that Donald Trump presidency would lead to World War III. His bold style, aggressive tweets, and hardline stance on foreign policy left many people nervous. “This is it,” they said. “He’s going to spark global conflict.”
But then something unexpected happened: nothing of the sort occurred.
Despite the dramatic warnings, Trump’s first term was not marked by new wars or catastrophic global escalations. In fact, under his leadership, the U.S. didn’t enter any new foreign wars — a notable break from recent presidential history. Today, as we watch a familiar pattern of criticism and alarm bells sounding again, it’s worth asking: were they wrong before, and are they wrong again?
The Fear of War That Never Came
When Donald Trump took office in January 2017, he inherited a volatile global stage. North Korea was actively testing missiles. Tensions with Iran were simmering. U.S. relations with China and Russia were under constant strain. Given Trump’s reputation for unpredictability, many feared the worst.
But instead of launching into war, Trump pursued an unorthodox form of diplomacy. He became the first sitting U.S. president to meet face-to-face with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. While the long-term success of those talks is still debated, the immediate result was a significant cooling of hostilities. No missiles were fired at American allies. No military intervention was ordered in retaliation.
Trump also followed through on a promise that resonated deeply with his base: bringing American troops home. He reduced troop levels in Afghanistan and Iraq, pushed NATO allies to take more responsibility, and focused on prioritizing American interests over global policing.
A Different Kind of Foreign Policy
Much of the media criticized Trump’s “America First” strategy, calling it isolationist or even reckless. But his administration argued that it was simply a return to putting U.S. citizens first — avoiding endless foreign wars and focusing on domestic strength.
Instead of deploying military power, Trump preferred economic pressure. His administration imposed crippling sanctions on Iran, pressured China with tough trade negotiations, and challenged traditional diplomatic norms without firing a single shot. Critics called it chaotic. Supporters called it bold.
And yet, the world didn’t descend into chaos. Instead, the Middle East saw unexpected peace deals under the Abraham Accords, brokered by the Trump administration between Israel and several Arab nations — something few thought possible at the time.
Media Warnings vs. Reality
The constant warnings of disaster under Trump didn’t just come from rival politicians. High-profile news outlets, commentators, and foreign policy experts painted him as a ticking time bomb. Every tweet, every statement was interpreted as a spark that could ignite conflict.
But by the time he left office, the predictions hadn’t come true. In fact, one of Trump’s most defining legacies was not starting a war, unlike many of his predecessors from both parties.
It’s a reminder of how powerful — and sometimes inaccurate — narratives can be.
These clips are Trump’s first term. They said that Trump was going to start WWIII. They were all wrong.
Sound familiar tonight?pic.twitter.com/uMBmG7dBaa
— MAZE (@mazemoore) June 17, 2025
Déjà Vu in 2025?
Fast forward to today, and we’re hearing similar voices raise familiar alarms. Once again, the possibility of a second Trump term is prompting concerns about global instability. Once again, pundits warn of diplomatic collapse and rising tensions. But if history is any guide, it’s worth taking a closer look at the facts.
What did Trump actually do during his first term?
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Avoided new wars
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Reined in foreign entanglements
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Negotiated directly with adversaries
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Brought troops home
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Brokered peace deals in the Middle East
These are not the actions of a warmonger. Whether you agree with his approach or not, the outcomes speak for themselves. And while his style may have been unconventional — sometimes even jarring — it was precisely that unpredictability that may have helped deter conflict. World leaders couldn’t guess his next move. That unpredictability made them cautious.
Why This Conversation Matters Now
As election season heats up, it’s important for voters to remember what really happened — not just what was predicted. Fear can be a powerful political tool. But fear based on false forecasts doesn’t help the public make informed decisions.
Today’s headlines might sound eerily similar to those from 2016: “He’ll start World War III.” But as we saw before, those headlines turned out to be more fiction than fact.
It’s easy to be swept up in emotion, especially when global events are so tense. But before we assume history will repeat in the way critics claim, maybe we should remember how it actually unfolded last time. Trump’s record — at least when it comes to avoiding war — might not fit the narrative, but it’s worth paying attention to.
Because facts still matter. And the truth might just be more surprising than the headlines.
