European Parliament elections approach, one of the EU’s founding members, Belgium, faces a pivotal domestic election on June 9. The outcome could radically alter the country’s future, with the far-right Flemish separatist movement Vlaams Belang (VB) poised to gain significant power.
Belgium, a country divided into three major regions—Flanders, Wallonia, and the Brussels-Capital region—has long been marked by linguistic and cultural divides. The northern region of Flanders is predominantly Dutch-speaking, while the southern region of Wallonia is French-speaking.
VB, led by 37-year-old Tom Van Grieken, has a controversial history, having been previously known as Vlaams Blok and found guilty of breaching anti-racism laws. Despite this, VB is projected to win 27 parliamentary seats, becoming the largest party, with the New Flemish Alliance (NVA), another right-wing party, coming in second with 20 seats.
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VB’s agenda includes a “declaration of sovereignty” and eventual independence for Flanders, potentially leading to the dissolution of Belgium. However, NVA advocates for a “confederal” state, maintaining Belgium for major policy areas like defense while devolving other legislative powers to the regions.
Even if VB and NVA align, they face significant challenges. They must negotiate with French-speaking parties over any separation arrangements, and Belgian politics rarely sees the largest party’s leader become prime minister due to an established cordon sanitaire. This coalition of parties opposes VB, working together to prevent it from gaining power.
Despite the growing support for Flemish independence, the future remains uncertain. The complexities of Belgian politics and the necessity for broad agreement across linguistic and regional lines mean that the path to independence is far from straightforward.
