If U.S. President Donald Trump reignites a trade war with Canada, a powerful weapon may be at Canada’s disposal: oil. A recent poll reveals that Canadians overwhelmingly support the idea of imposing export taxes on oil shipments as a retaliatory measure against Trump’s tariffs. The survey highlights the growing frustration among the Canadian public, signaling potential political backing for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government to take decisive action.
A striking 82% of Canadians back the idea of raising the price on oil exports to the U.S. if Trump targets Canadian goods but exempts oil, according to a poll by Nanos Research Group. Conducted from Jan. 31 to Feb. 3, the survey, which involved 1,077 respondents, shows strong support across the country for using oil as leverage. The findings are deemed highly accurate, with a margin of error of just 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The poll reveals regional differences, with 72% support in Canada’s oil-rich Prairie provinces. Despite this, local premiers like Alberta’s Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe have publicly opposed the use of export taxes, but they appear out of sync with the majority of their residents.
Atlantic Canadians show the strongest support, with nearly 90% backing the idea of retaliatory oil export taxes. This highlights the significant regional backing for a more aggressive stance against potential U.S. tariffs.
The poll also uncovers that 79% of Canadians are in favor of imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, even if it results in higher prices for domestic consumers. Oil, being Canada’s most significant export to the U.S., is the primary leverage Canada holds in trade negotiations. The U.S. relies heavily on Canadian oil—about 4 million barrels a day—and many U.S. refineries are particularly dependent on Canada’s heavy crude, making it a strategic resource in any trade dispute.
Trump’s recent executive order announced a 25% tariff on Canadian exports, excluding “energy,” which would face a 10% duty. This move, touted as a response to the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. from Canada, has been met with skepticism, as U.S. statistics do not support the claim that fentanyl from Canada is a significant issue. While Trump delayed the tariffs for 30 days after speaking with Trudeau, he has kept the threat on the table, setting the stage for continued trade tensions.
The Canadian government, aware of the importance of oil to both nations, has considered export taxes on oil, uranium, and potash as potential retaliatory measures. Trudeau, however, has expressed caution, emphasizing the importance of not allowing these trade disputes to further divide the country.
Despite Trudeau’s careful approach, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has vehemently opposed the idea of export taxes, warning that such measures would harm Canada’s oil industry. Smith’s refusal to sign a joint statement with other Canadian leaders in January was a clear indication of her stance.
As tensions continue to build, the question remains: will Canada pull the trigger on using its oil exports as a powerful tool in the ongoing trade battle with the U.S.? Only time will tell.
