Recent polling suggests that former President Donald Trump may not be performing as well with Black voters as previously believed. Two surveys indicate that support for Trump among this key demographic remains low, challenging the narrative of a growing Republican presence in the Black community.
A poll conducted by Howard University’s Initiative on Public Opinion found that 83% of Black respondents plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee. Only 8% expressed support for Trump. This survey included 981 likely Black voters from crucial battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, and was conducted between October 2 and 8. With a margin of error of ±3.2 percentage points, the findings indicate a decline in Trump’s support from September, where 12% of respondents favored him.
In this latest survey, 77% of participants had a favorable view of Harris, an increase from 74% the previous month. In contrast, only 15% viewed Trump favorably, down from 17% in September.
Another poll from YouGov for CBS News, conducted from October 8 to 11, corroborated these findings, revealing that 87% of Black likely voters support Harris, while 12% back Trump.
Janiyah Thomas, director of Black media engagement for the Trump campaign, emphasized the focus on delivering results rather than getting caught up in polling numbers. She stated, “We know this fight isn’t easy, but Team Trump is committed to bringing him back to the White House to continue that progress—lowering costs, creating jobs, and ensuring that Black Americans have the opportunity to thrive again.”
Despite some indications of momentum among Black men, Trump’s support remains significantly lower than in the 2020 election, where 92% of Black voters chose President Joe Biden. With less than three weeks until Election Day, both Trump and Harris are actively trying to win over Black voters, recognizing that even small shifts in support could be critical in tightly contested states.
Harris recently announced a plan to provide more opportunities for Black men, addressing concerns that some may abstain from voting or support Trump. This move follows comments from former President Barack Obama, who noted that some Black men might be hesitant to support a female president.
While a New York Times/Siena College poll suggested Trump was gaining traction with Black voters, other experts remain skeptical. Katherine Tate, a political science professor at Brown University, expressed doubt about the accuracy of Trump’s support among Black voters. She remarked, “I actually think the polls have overestimated Trump’s support among Blacks,” highlighting that dissatisfaction with both candidates may lead some to perceive Trump as a potential agent of change.
Tate pointed out that Black Trump supporters are often poorly mobilized, and those who do turn out to vote are likely to support Harris. She also noted the role of sexism in the Black community, suggesting that Black male voters opposed to Harris due to her gender are unlikely to vote for Trump.
Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, warned against interpreting minor shifts in polling as significant movements. He explained that in the final days of a campaign, voters may gravitate back towards candidates who share their identity and priorities.
Overall, the data indicates that Trump’s appeal to Black voters may be overstated, and as the election approaches, the Democratic nominee appears to be solidifying her support within this crucial demographic.
