A recent poll has caused a significant stir by revealing that a majority of Americans now favor Donald Trump to win the upcoming presidential race. This poll, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph, shows a boost in voter support for Trump in key swing states following an assassination attempt.
Poll Findings and Impact
The survey found that 53 percent of eligible voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania believe Trump will win the presidential race in November. This figure is nearly three points higher than a similar poll conducted on July 10, just days before the incident where Thomas Crooks fired at Trump from a rooftop near his rally in Pennsylvania.
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The survey, conducted from July 16 to July 18, included 5,005 respondents and had a margin of error ranging from 3.46 percent in Georgia to 4.22 percent in Arizona.
Historical Context and Trends
The Telegraph has consistently polled voters in crucial states needed to secure the Electoral College delegates necessary for a White House victory since October. This latest survey also included voters from Nevada and Wisconsin for the first time. Historically, Trump has led these surveys, but the gap between him and President Joe Biden has widened over the past six weeks.
Following Biden’s poorly received presidential debate performance on June 27, expectations of a Trump victory increased by five points to 50 percent. This figure has risen by an additional 2.7 points since the assassination attempt.
Expert Analysis
“The image of Trump pumping his fist after the assassination attempt is now burned into the minds of Americans,” said Thomas Gift, director of the Center on U.S. Politics at University College London. “Small wonder why that symbol of defiance is resonating with undecided and swing voters,” he told Newsweek. Gift added that the incident is likely to bolster Trump’s support significantly in Pennsylvania, whose 20 electoral votes could be pivotal in the election outcome.
Democratic Concerns
Democrats are increasingly pessimistic about Biden’s candidacy, leading to renewed calls from party lawmakers for him to withdraw from the race. Concerns about Biden’s ability to defeat Trump have been heightened by recent gaffes at the NATO summit and in interviews.
Additional Findings
Additional findings from the Redfield & Wilton poll, shared with Newsweek, support this sentiment. The most significant increase in support for Trump was observed in North Carolina, where there was a four percent rise, bringing his backing to 45 percent. Trump also saw gains in Florida and Michigan, with increases of three percent and two percent, respectively.
The survey further revealed that Biden has a negative net approval rating in seven of the eight states polled. The lowest rating was in North Carolina, while the highest was in Georgia, where his net approval was zero percent. Conversely, Trump enjoys a positive net favorability rating in four of the eight states, with the highest in North Carolina at seven percent and the lowest in Nevada at minus five percent.
Conclusion
This latest poll highlights the shifting dynamics in the presidential race and the challenges facing both candidates as they head towards the November election. With key swing states leaning towards Trump, the coming months will be crucial for both campaigns to solidify their support and address voter concerns.
