Before Election Day arrives, the “Stop the Steal” movement has re-emerged with vigor, as some activists from the 2020 campaign outline plans to undermine the election results should Donald Trump lose again. For months, these activists have been conditioning Trump supporters to believe that any loss would stem from fraud, setting the stage for potential upheaval following the election.
With proposals that include legal challenges, pressuring lawmakers to obstruct election certification, and organizing protests, the movement is preparing for a climactic showdown on January 6, 2025, when Congress will certify the election results. Ivan Raiklin, a former Green Beret and political operative closely connected to Trump’s circle, recently stated to Pennsylvania activists, “I have a plan and strategy. And then January 6th is going to be pretty fun.”
Repeating Patterns of Misinformation
Trump’s allies, including the former president himself, have been vocal in pushing debunked claims of voter fraud through various media, including podcasts, sermons, and rallies. Some prominent figures, particularly from the Christian nationalist sphere, frame the election as a battle of good versus evil, depicting Kamala Harris as an antichrist figure and asserting that God has anointed Trump as the rightful victor.
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Reflecting on the chaos of 2020, the previous efforts to overturn election results were largely improvised and ultimately ineffective. In contrast, this time, MAGA activists have been strategizing well in advance, with some advocating that state legislators should disregard election outcomes entirely and award electoral votes to Trump.
Evolving Tactics and Concerns
Recent measures passed by Congress have made it more difficult to overturn a certified presidential election. Despite this, experts warn that those attempting to disrupt the electoral process seem better organized, more determined, and potentially more extreme than in the past. Federal law enforcement has also expressed concern, with warnings from the Department of Homeland Security highlighting the potential for extremist rhetoric to incite violence akin to what occurred during the 2020 election cycle.
Marc Harris, a former investigator for the House committee that probed January 6, expressed concern that tactics to undermine the election have become more sophisticated since 2020. He noted, “Those looking to overturn the election are way ahead of where they were in 2020,” while acknowledging that pro-democracy advocates are also better prepared.
The Narrative of Fraud
Claims about a stolen election are gaining traction again among MAGA supporters. Right-wing broadcaster Emerald Robinson has stated that the upcoming election is ripe for theft, implying that delays in vote counting indicate foul play. Others, like former Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne, have warned of cyberattacks aimed at rigging the election, predicting catastrophic outcomes if Americans do not unite.
The persistence of conspiracy theories surrounding voting machines and election officials’ integrity has created an environment ripe for misinformation. Guests on platforms like “War Room,” a program associated with former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, have suggested that Democrats could attempt to block a legitimate Trump victory.
While Trump continues to echo these conspiracy theories, some Republican leaders are attempting to counter the narrative. Lara Trump, co-chair of the Republican National Committee, emphasized the integrity of American elections and the need for robust voter participation to prevent manipulation.
Legislative Strategies to Secure Electors
Certain MAGA factions are advocating for a radical strategy to secure electoral votes for Trump, regardless of actual vote counts. This tactic gained notoriety after Rep. Andy Harris, chair of the House Freedom Caucus, implied that North Carolina’s circumstances due to Hurricane Helene justified such a move. Although he later retracted his remarks, the notion that state legislators can simply allocate electoral votes based on their judgment has garnered attention.
Legal experts and state election officials have criticized these proposals, asserting that they violate electoral law. In North Carolina, election officials have stated that voting is proceeding smoothly, contradicting claims that the hurricane would disenfranchise voters.
Violence and Threats
Political violence remains a pressing concern, with incidents already reported in 2024, including threats against Trump and violent acts tied to election discourse. Some pro-Trump activists have made veiled threats of violence if the election results are contested for too long, signaling a potentially volatile atmosphere post-election.
Michael Flynn, Trump’s former national security adviser, hinted at unrest if election outcomes remain unresolved, citing the agitation stemming from the 2020 experience.
Extremist groups have reportedly shifted their planning for post-election actions to more private channels, increasing the risk of violence against government targets and ideological opponents.
