In a sweeping move to transform China’s military landscape, President Xi Jinping’s recent campaign to purge senior commanders deemed unprepared for war has ignited fears of escalating regional tensions, especially in the context of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The Business Insider reported this internal power struggle on Monday, January 15, 2024, raising concerns about the broader implications for global stability.
President Xi Jinping, who took office in 2012, has relentlessly sought to revamp China’s military structure, personnel, and capabilities. The most recent development occurred on December 29, 2023, when nine senior officers were summarily dismissed, prompting speculation about the underlying motives.
Initial reports and U.S. intelligence pointed to corruption as the primary driver, but some experts argue that Xi’s main objective is to ensure military leadership consists of officers ready and willing to engage in combat.
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Gordon Chang, a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and author of “China Is Going to War,” posits that Xi Jinping aims to exert control over the military and eliminate officers who may be hesitant about going to war. Chang cites the case of Chinese Air Force General Liu Yazhou, who received a suspended death sentence in February 2022 after cautioning against an invasion of Taiwan, highlighting the internal struggle within China’s military leadership.
Joel Wuthnow, a senior research fellow at the National Defense University in Washington, DC, interprets Xi’s actions as aligning with the goal of preparing China for war while rooting out corruption simultaneously.
The dismissed senior commanders were affiliated with China’s Rocket Force, a crucial component with potential involvement in any military campaign.
This emphasis on military readiness comes amid China’s assertive actions in the region, including low-level hostilities with neighboring countries such as India, Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan. China’s territorial claims and military maneuvers in these areas have heightened tensions, with Taiwan emerging as a focal point of international concern.
Xi Jinping’s rhetoric, particularly regarding Taiwan, has intensified. In his New Year’s address, Xi stated, “China will surely be reunified, and all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose.” During a face-to-face meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden at the APEC summit in November 2023, Xi reportedly conveyed China’s intention to take control of Taiwan.
Analysts caution that these statements may serve as potential triggers for regional conflicts, inadvertently escalating tensions. Gordon Chang suggests that Xi might be “talking himself and China into a war,” drawing parallels to historical precedents that led to global conflicts.
Despite concerns, Joel Wuthnow believes that Xi Jinping may exercise caution, influenced by the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Observing the destabilizing impact on Vladimir Putin’s domestic position, Xi may be wary of a similar outcome and the potential political cost of a failed military adventure.
Amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, the prevailing conditions set the stage for a complex global landscape. While specific triggers remain uncertain, there is growing apprehension that Xi Jinping’s efforts to reshape China’s military could contribute to the merging of regional conflicts into a larger, potentially global conflict. The fear looms that a Chinese invasion in East Asia, particularly Taiwan, could drag Western countries into a broader and more devastating conflict.
