Recent polling data reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris has successfully won over 60% of undecided voters in the past month, indicating a significant shift in voter sentiment as the 2024 election approaches. The Emerson College poll, conducted between October 14 and 16, shows that among undecided voters who made their choice recently, 60% opted for Harris, while only 36% chose former President Donald Trump.
The breakdown of the poll highlights Harris’s growing appeal among undecided voters. Among those who decided their support within the last month, 57% backed Harris compared to 41% for Trump. Even more notably, when focusing on undecided voters who made their decision within the past week, Harris garnered an impressive 65%, leaving Trump with just 27%.
Voter Decision Timeline
The poll also sheds light on when voters made their choices. A significant majority, 80%, indicated they had decided whom to support over a month ago. In contrast, 11% made their decision within the last month, 6% did so in the past week, and 3% remain undecided. Among these remaining undecided voters, Harris leads with 48% support compared to Trump’s 43%, according to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
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Campaign Reactions
This favorable polling comes as a boost for Harris’s campaign, which has faced challenges in a competitive race. Trump’s campaign spokesperson, Steven Cheung, responded to the poll by asserting, “President Trump is out working Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala’s destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community.”
Competitive Landscape
Despite this positive news for Harris, recent polls show Trump gaining ground. A Fox News poll conducted from October 11 to 14 revealed Trump leading Harris by 2 points, with him at 50% and Harris at 48%. This marks a notable shift from September, when Harris held a 2-point advantage.
In key swing states, Trump’s support appears to be strengthening. For instance, a Fabrizio/McLaughlin poll from October 9 indicates that Trump leads in all seven swing states. Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics tracker suggests Trump is on track to secure 312 Electoral College votes, compared to Harris’s projected 226.
Electoral Vote Dynamics
Harris needs to secure 44 electoral votes from toss-up states to clinch victory, while Trump would require 51. Despite Trump’s advantage in the battlegrounds, forecasts from FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver still suggest that Harris could prevail, particularly in pivotal states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada. According to these analyses, Harris’s national lead stands at approximately 2.4 to 2.5 points, with both candidates now in a tightly contested race.
