As the election approaches, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has gained traction among key voter demographics, particularly Hispanic and suburban women. According to a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll, Harris now leads former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee, by two points among registered voters, holding 49% compared to Trump’s 47%. This margin increases to four points among likely voters, with Harris at 51% against Trump’s 47%.
Key Factors Behind Harris’s Surge
The ABC News/Ipsos poll, conducted online from October 18 to 22 with approximately 2,800 participants, indicates that Harris’s support among Hispanic voters has significantly increased. Previously, she had a 30-point advantage over Trump in this demographic, a notable improvement from a 17-point lead in September. Additionally, Harris has widened her lead among suburban women, growing from a 9-point lead to a remarkable 19 points in the latest poll.
Despite these gains, Trump continues to strengthen his position among certain voter groups. His advantage among white men without college degrees has grown from 26 points in September to 41 points, and he maintains a similar lead among rural voters.
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Economic Concerns Loom Large
While Harris enjoys increased support from critical voting blocs, she still faces challenges related to economic perceptions. Many voters express pessimism about the economy despite recent improvements, such as decreasing inflation and job growth. Voters remain concerned about inflation, crime, and immigration—areas where Trump has been successful in framing his narrative.
The Trump campaign has leveraged Harris’s role as “border czar” to question the Biden administration’s immigration policies, emphasizing ongoing challenges at the U.S.-Mexico border. Republicans view border security as a crucial issue, with 90% of Republicans deeming it “highly important,” compared to just 50% of Democrats.
Independent Voter Perspectives
Independent voters have ranked economic issues, including inflation and crime, as their top priorities. In contrast, topics like immigration and abortion are considered lower priorities among this group. This indicates a potential vulnerability for both candidates, as they navigate voter sentiment on these critical issues.
Overall Polling Landscape
Polling continues to fluctuate in this election cycle, with recent results indicating a tight race between Harris and Trump. While CNBC’s latest poll shows Trump leading by two points, a conservative poll from Rasmussen indicates Harris has gained a slim one-point advantage for the first time this cycle.
