In a recent blow to the Republicans’ hopes of maintaining control in Congress after the upcoming November 2024 elections, a poll published on Friday delivered grim news to House Speaker Mike Johnson. Elected late last month amidst internal party turmoil, Johnson, a representative from Louisiana, now grapples with a deeply divided House and dwindling support for his party.
Following the removal of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Johnson inherited a Republican party fractured over critical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the debate surrounding the impeachment of President Joe Biden. With a mere four-seat advantage over the Democrats, Johnson faces the daunting task of uniting the GOP conference’s conservative hardliners while also appeasing moderate voices from battleground districts. Many of these moderates are expected to face tough reelection battles next year.
Complicating matters further, Johnson has a mere two weeks to navigate these divides and pass a series of appropriations bills to fund the federal government and avert a shutdown. Restoring the Republicans’ image in competitive congressional districts is paramount, especially after chaos surrounding the speaker race and concerns about an imminent government shutdown.
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A poll conducted by progressive polling firm Navigator Research, which surveyed 1,500 likely voters across 61 battleground districts from October 19 to 25, revealed alarming statistics for the GOP. According to the poll, House Republicans now suffer a 22-point disapproval rating, a sharp increase from the 12-point disapproval rating recorded in July. Meanwhile, Democrats maintained a steady 10-point disapproval rating in both July and October.
Democratic incumbents in these districts have consistently outperformed their GOP counterparts, boasting an average approval rating of 9, while Republican incumbents face a disapproval rating of 7. The disparity in approval ratings suggests an uphill battle for Republicans in key swing districts, making it increasingly challenging for them to secure a majority in the House.
The Cook Political Report, an organization tracking elections nationwide, highlighted the precarious situation facing House Republicans. According to their analysis, 15 Republican seats are now considered toss-ups, compared to nine Democratic seats. Additionally, GOP Representative George Santos of New York, representing a suburban Long Island district that favored Biden by 8 points, finds himself in a “Lean Democrat” race, further indicating the shifting dynamics in these crucial battlegrounds.
Furthermore, redistricting efforts in states like Alabama, Louisiana, and North Carolina have created even more challenges for both parties, making it difficult for incumbents to defend their positions in the upcoming elections.
House Speaker Mike Johnson’s office was contacted by Journalists for comment, but no response has been received at the time of this report.
