A recent poll from USA Today/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, revealing a tight race in the crucial swing state of Florida. The poll, conducted between August 7 and August 11, shows Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by just 5 points, with Trump at 47% and Harris at 42%. This narrow margin marks a significant shift from previous surveys, where Trump had a more substantial lead.
Florida, a state pivotal in presidential elections due to its 29 electoral votes, has been a stronghold for Trump in past elections, with victories in both 2016 and 2020. However, recent data indicates that Trump’s support may be diminishing. The poll suggests a reversal in Florida’s traditional trend towards Republican candidates, which was evident in Governor Ron DeSantis’s landslide victory in 2022.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, expressed surprise at the poll’s closeness, noting that while Harris is “still the underdog,” she is closer to Trump than many anticipated. This sentiment is reinforced by Harris’s recent gains, with national polls showing her gaining 7.3 points over the last 45 days, now leading Trump by 1.8 points. In Florida, Harris has gained 9.6 points, narrowing Trump’s once-safe lead in the state.
The poll also sheds light on the candidates’ favorability ratings in Florida. Trump holds a higher favorability rating than both Harris and President Biden, with 50% of respondents favoring the former president, compared to 44% for Harris and 39% for Biden. Despite Trump’s higher favorability, Harris’s increasing support suggests her popularity may be on the rise.
As the presidential election draws nearer, the recent poll highlights a potential shift in Florida’s political dynamics. With Harris gaining ground both nationally and in Florida, the battle for the state’s crucial electoral votes is far from decided. It remains to be seen whether Trump can hold onto his lead or if Harris can continue to close the gap as the election approaches.