Recent mega-poll conducted by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus has sent shockwaves through British politics, predicting that Rishi Sunak, along with 20 other Tory Cabinet ministers, could lose their seats in the upcoming General Election. The poll, which surveyed nearly 20,000 adults across Britain using the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) method, foresees a dramatic reshaping of the political landscape.
According to the projections, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who holds a commanding majority of 24,331 votes in Richmond and Northallerton, is at risk of being ousted by Labour. The poll paints a bleak picture for other high-profile Tories as well, including Oliver Dowden, Deputy Prime Minister, and Kemi Badenoch, Business Secretary, all facing tough electoral challenges.
If the predictions hold true, the Conservative Party could see its parliamentary presence reduced to just 60 MPs, trailing behind the Liberal Democrats who are forecasted to secure 71 seats. Labour, on the other hand, is set to gain a staggering 450 seats, giving them an unprecedented majority of 250 in Parliament.
The list of potential casualties among Cabinet ministers is extensive, with names like Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor; Grant Shapps, Defence Secretary; and Penny Mordaunt, Leader of the Commons, all highlighted as vulnerable in their respective constituencies. Even Education Secretary Michelle Donelan and Health Secretary Victoria Atkins are facing significant electoral threats from opposing parties.
The findings have also highlighted a potential resurgence for Reform UK, with notable figures like Nigel Farage and Richard Tice among those projected to win seats. The poll underscores the volatility of the current political climate and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election.
The MRP method used in this poll has previously proven accurate in forecasting the outcomes of the 2017 and 2019 elections, adding weight to these alarming predictions. Conducted online between June 14 and 24, the survey provides a snapshot of voter sentiment ahead of what promises to be a pivotal moment in British political history.
As the countdown to the General Election intensifies, the fate of Rishi Sunak and his Cabinet colleagues hangs in the balance, with the potential for significant repercussions not only for the Conservative Party but for the entire landscape of British governance.
