Former President Donald Trump’s decision to skip the Republican presidential debates has stirred discussions among political pundits, raising questions about the potential risks he might face in crucial primary states.
Trump’s absence from upcoming face-offs in Iowa and New Hampshire has left political observers wondering about the consequences of his strategy. While he plans to counter-program Wednesday’s third debate in Miami with a campaign rally in nearby Hialeah, Fla., Trump is also urging the Republican National Committee to cancel future events, allowing him to avoid making a decision about attending these high-profile debates.
“It is time for the Republican establishment to stop wasting time and money trying to push weak RINOs and Never Trumpers that nobody wants on the ballot,” said Trump during a “Florida Freedom Summit” last weekend.
The Republican National Committee has already scheduled the next debate for Dec. 6 in Tuscaloosa, home of the University of Alabama. Additionally, two debates are planned in January before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, the first two delegate contests on the Republican calendar.
Currently, Trump and his allies argue that there is no reason for him to share a debate stage with struggling opponents since his strategy seems to be working. His lead over the Republican field has slightly increased since the first GOP debate in Milwaukee on Aug. 23, reaching over 40 percentage points in some cases.
“It certainly hasn’t hurt him,” said Alan Schroeder, author of “Presidential Debates: Fifty Years of High-Risk TV.” “There doesn’t seem to be a dent in his ratings.”
A recent Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll indicated that 57% of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers are not bothered by Trump’s absence from the debates. Nevertheless, 42% of respondents felt that Trump should participate in at least one debate before the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15.
Despite criticisms from opponents like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who accuse Trump of taking the nomination for granted, Trump’s polling averages have continued to rise. He currently leads with 57.9% in national polls, followed by DeSantis at 13.4% and Haley at 8.9%.
Trump’s decision to avoid debates is part of a broader strategy to portray himself as the inevitable nominee. He has repeatedly called on other candidates to drop out and has asked donors to stop funding his challengers, insisting that the funds should be used in the campaign against President Joe Biden and the Democrats.
While Trump’s position appears strong for now, analysts suggest that the pressure might increase for him to join debates in Iowa and New Hampshire, especially if a smaller number of candidates qualify for those debates and the polls tighten.
“Frontrunners often face the biggest risks in debates,” said Aaron Kall, debate coach at the University of Michigan. “It may be tougher for Trump to refuse debates in Iowa and New Hampshire if the situation changes, and the pressure would increase for him to join.”
