The upcoming GOP primary in New Hampshire, a recent poll reveals a neck-and-neck competition between Nikki Haley and Donald Trump, signaling a significant shift in dynamics, according to a Newsweek report on Tuesday, January 17.
The survey by American Research Group Inc, which involved 600 likely voters, indicates a deadlock at 40 percent for both candidates. Notably, Haley has garnered considerable support among male voters, those under 49, and undeclared or independent voters.
Post-Trump’s strong showing in the Iowa caucus, the poll underscores a formidable challenge for Haley, who secured the third position in Iowa but is expected to present a more robust competition in the New Hampshire primary scheduled for January 23.
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A closer examination of the data reveals that Haley is the preferred candidate among male voters in New Hampshire, securing 44 percent compared to Trump’s 37 percent. Furthermore, she leads among voters aged 18-49 (40 percent to Trump’s 39 percent) and undeclared voters (51 percent to Trump’s 24 percent).
These trends align with national patterns, where Haley’s support is prominent among men and college-educated Republicans.
Despite Trump’s triumph in Iowa, Haley’s assertion of turning the GOP primary into a two-person race with Trump led to her withdrawal from a debate with Ron DeSantis. In response on Truth Social, Trump took a combative tone, mocking Haley for her Iowa speech and emphasizing his perceived strengths within the GOP base.
As the New Hampshire primary approaches, this recent poll suggests fierce competition and potential challenges for Trump, especially among specific demographic groups. The following weeks will play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of the GOP primary race.
For additional context, Haley’s emergence as a formidable challenger to Trump represents a reversal from a few months ago. Despite initial struggles after announcing her campaign in 2021, Haley gained momentum by criticizing Trump’s extreme rhetoric and conduct on January 6, resonating with certain voter blocs.
Meanwhile, Trump faces ongoing legal issues, including investigations into handling classified documents and election interference in Georgia. While popular with the base, Trump shows vulnerability among swing voters who may be inclined towards Haley’s smoother, disciplined style.
The poll also indicates a decline for Ron DeSantis, who led New Hampshire polls last fall but currently sits at just 8 percent. DeSantis chose to focus on later states, conceding momentum to Trump and Haley. His campaign hopes for a robust Florida primary showing to reset the race, but his position appears increasingly precarious.
As Haley and Trump vie for the GOP’s core, their differing styles and visions for the party will be tested. Haley pledges a new generation of leadership, while Trump emphasizes loyalty to his divisive brand. The decisions of New Hampshire Republicans in weighing these options could determine the advantage heading into a prolonged nomination fight.
