Democratic primary in New Hampshire approaches on Jan. 23, it stands poised to serve as a crucial litmus test for President Joe Biden’s standing within his party for the 2024 elections. The method to gauge the results remains uncertain, with potential scenarios that could portray Biden as a victor even in the event of a contest defeat. Challenger Dean Phillips could claim a moral victory even in the face of a loss. The outcome will be subjected to intense scrutiny, and various efforts to interpret and spin the results are anticipated.
Given his incumbent status, Biden faces a high bar for success. However, his name won’t appear on the ballot due to his advocacy for South Carolina as the first primary, obliging voters to write him in. Despite a potential victory, no delegates will be awarded since New Hampshire’s defiance of the national party’s stripping of its first-in-the-nation status last year means the primary precedes all others.
While primary challenges rarely succeed, they have historically disrupted assumptions about incumbent presidents with uncertain electoral prospects. Phillips, though considered a longshot, draws inspiration from Eugene McCarthy’s 1968 New Hampshire primary showing against President Lyndon B. Johnson.
To decipher the potential outcomes, Democratic strategists and party officials were surveyed by POLITICO. Opinions varied, with some believing Biden needs around 60% to avoid embarrassment, others suggesting Phillips only needs 30-40% for momentum, and some arguing any win suffices for Biden. There’s also a contingent expressing uncertainty about the benchmarks.
Former state House Speaker Steve Shurtleff, a Phillips supporter, asserts that Phillips needs around 40% to succeed, while a pro-Biden Democratic strategist suggests that Biden falling below 60% would indicate serious trouble.
A second Democratic operative supporting Biden proposes that Phillips might surprise with just 30%, considering his relative obscurity as a Midwest congressman running against an incumbent.
New Hampshire is pivotal for Phillips, who has invested heavily in the state with significant spending on TV ads and extensive campaigning. Even with potential success, sustaining momentum is challenging with South Carolina and Nevada following on the primary calendar, where Phillips is not on the ballot.
Recent polls indicate Phillips is far from reaching the suggested benchmarks, with a December Saint Anselm College poll showing him at 10%. Biden, too, falls short in some polls, with 50% stating they would write him in.
Former President Barack Obama received just under 81% in 2012 for his reelection bid in the state, while some argue Biden simply needs to win, considering the complexities of a write-in campaign.
The circumstances, including 21 candidates on the ballot, make some state Democrats anxious about achieving a plurality. Biden’s allies are backing grassroots efforts and a super PAC to encourage voters to write in his name.
While Phillips attempts to exploit discontent over the elimination of Iowa and New Hampshire from the primary positions, Biden’s strength is showcased by unified support from Democratic leaders in New Hampshire and nationwide. Discontent within the party over Biden’s support for this move poses an additional challenge for pro-Biden backers.
As the New Hampshire Democratic primary unfolds, the nation awaits a verdict on Biden’s standing and Phillips’ potential impact in this unconventional political landscape.
