WASHINGTON (AP) — Former President Donald Trump secured a resounding triumph on Monday, marking the inaugural victory of the 2024 presidential primary season in the Iowa Republican caucuses. The Associated Press, drawing on an analysis of preliminary returns and insights from AP VoteCast, a survey capturing the sentiments of caucus participants, declared Trump the indisputable winner as he commanded an insurmountable lead.
By 8:31 p.m. ET, initial results from eight counties showcased Trump garnering well beyond half of the total votes. In comparison, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley found themselves engaged in a close contest for the second position, trailing far behind the former president. Notably, these counties included rural areas mirroring the demographics and political inclinations of numerous counties yet to report.
In standard primaries, AP refrains from proclaiming a winner until the closing of the last polls in the contest. This declaration typically follows the closing of polls, preceding the release of any vote results, contingent upon overwhelming evidence from VoteCast, pre-election polling, and the state’s electoral history.
However, the unique dynamics of the Iowa caucuses, devoid of fixed polls and a specific voting deadline, warranted a departure from the usual protocol. As deliberations among caucusgoers began behind closed doors after the 8 p.m. ET arrival deadline, the process varied in duration across caucus sites. Despite not making a traditional “poll close” announcement on Monday night, AP meticulously reviewed returns from various caucus sites across Iowa, ultimately proclaiming Trump the winner based on unequivocal evidence.
This approach aligns with AP’s prior practices in past Iowa caucuses, where the timing of declarations depended on the competitiveness of the races. In 2020, Trump’s victory was declared at 8:25 p.m. ET, while the 2016 race between Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz required until 10:26 p.m. ET for a verdict.
AP VoteCast, a comprehensive survey encompassing both voters and nonvoters, painted a comprehensive picture of the electorate. It revealed Trump’s substantial leads across genders, age groups, and geographic regions in the state. Notably, the survey highlighted Trump’s support among approximately 60% of voters intending to caucus who identify as born-again Christians—a demographic that exhibited relatively weaker backing for Trump in Iowa during the 2016 elections.
Early returns underscored Trump’s significant improvement over his 2016 caucus performance, where he secured 24% of the vote, trailing Cruz’s 28%. In contrast, this year, Trump led or competed much more strongly in populous counties like Dallas, Johnson, Polk, Scott, and Story—counties that favored Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in 2016.
