New Year approaches, a sense of trepidation, rather than anticipation, looms large for many. The specter of 2024 potentially marking a perilous juncture where Americans may vote away their democracy is a disconcerting thought that cannot be dismissed lightly; it is an undeniable reality.
Contributing to this unease is the pervasive tendency of the media to amplify our fears, capitalizing on the marketability of apprehension while downplaying evidence to the contrary.
For readers of the Washington Monthly, a distinctive approach prevails. Two years prior, Contributing Writer Robert Shapiro embarked on a series elucidating what he termed the “Biden Boom.” In over a dozen stories, he uncovered an economy substantially more robust than media portrayals suggested. Amidst predictions of an impending recession by mainstream economists, Shapiro, a former undersecretary of commerce, delved into real-time data and refuted the prevailing narrative.
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When conventional wisdom and polls predicted a “red wave” in 2022, Politics Editor Bill Scher scrutinized the same surveys and historical context, dissenting from the prevailing sentiment. During recent panicky narratives about House Republicans pushing the government into default, Scher examined House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s words and incentives, offering a counter-narrative: a deal was in the offing.
These prescient insights were not clairvoyance but a result of meticulous interpretation of prevailing evidence. Presently, polling averages place Joe Biden slightly behind Donald Trump. However, as emphasized by Shapiro and political analyst Michael Podhorzer, historical precedent suggests limited predictive value for polls at this stage. Scher’s analysis underscores that Trump and Biden have exchanged polling leads five times this year, highlighting the closeness of the race and the significance of swing voters.
Despite some Democrats expressing concern over Biden’s apparent lack of aggressive campaigning, the narrative flips when considering that Biden’s campaign has yet to kick into high gear. The Washington Monthly’s detailed account in 2023 reveals a more favorable story awaiting articulation. Challenges to the Biden administration’s antitrust agenda, dismissed by outlets like The Wall Street Journal, were refuted by Editor Will Norris, who pointed to significant court victories and a 40 percent drop in corporate mergers—a sign that the antitrust effort is gaining momentum. Biden, if astute, could leverage his antimonopoly record to address voters’ primary concern—inflation—and pledge further reduction if reelected.
As uncertainties abound about the 2024 presidential election, preparation for potential adversity is paramount. Yet, maintaining composure and avoiding the collective panic of the herd is equally crucial for an informed and measured perspective.
