Former President Donald Trump expressed concerns about the difficulties Republicans face in winning the popular vote as Election Day approaches. During a rally in Salem, Virginia, on November 2, 2024, Trump highlighted the stronghold of Democratic voters in key states, making it “tough” for his party to achieve a popular vote victory.
Trump emphasized the importance of voter turnout on Tuesday, stating his desire to win “everything,” including the popular vote. He pointed specifically to states like California, New York, and Illinois, asserting that these significant states automatically lean Democratic, which complicates Republican efforts. “When you have New York, Illinois, and California, it’s like ridiculous. It’s tough to win the popular vote because they’re three big states,” he remarked.
While Trump secured the presidency in 2016, he did not win the popular vote against Hillary Clinton and also fell short in 2020 against President Joe Biden. Historically, Democrats have captured the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections dating back to 2000, although Republicans have managed to secure the presidency through the Electoral College in three of those elections.
Claiming he leads in polls across various metrics, Trump expressed optimism about his chances in the popular vote. He also referenced his ongoing claims of voter fraud, suggesting that such tactics aided Democrats in past elections. “I’d love to win the popular vote with them cheating. Let them cheat because that’s what they do,” he stated. Despite these allegations, Trump believes that his campaign has a strong chance to prevail on Election Day.
The Electoral College’s unique system means that winning the popular vote alone does not guarantee victory in the presidential race. Democrats have recently experienced this phenomenon, where they won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College. For instance, Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by two points but lost the presidency, while Biden won by 4.5 points yet had a narrow Electoral College win.
Experts have suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris may face challenges in achieving the popular vote as previous Democratic candidates have, citing shifts in voter demographics that could benefit Republicans. Trump’s rally in Virginia is part of a campaign swing through states that typically lean Democratic but are expected to support Harris comfortably.
