President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China have ignited fears of skyrocketing drug prices and rising healthcare costs, but experts say the full impact might not be as catastrophic as some expect. Still, with Americans relying on China for critical drug ingredients and medical supplies, the ripple effects could hit consumers in surprising ways.
A recent survey by Black Book Research revealed that 84% of healthcare consumers anticipate higher costs due to Trump’s latest tariffs. However, health policy expert Chris Pope argues that the healthcare sector as a whole may be shielded from drastic price increases because most of it is domestically driven. “There’s not much international trade for most of healthcare,” Pope explained. “The biggest parts—physician services and hospitals—are already domestic, so that removes nearly three-quarters of all healthcare spending from tariff impact.”
But the remaining quarter? That’s where things get interesting.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices in the Crosshairs
Experts say prescription drugs and medical devices are particularly vulnerable to price hikes. The U.S. depends heavily on China for key chemicals and compounds used in generic medications, making them a prime target for tariff-induced cost increases. Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, warns that essential drugs—including ibuprofen, acetaminophen, and even antidepressants—could see steep price jumps.
“If you look at the list of what we import from China for drug production, it spans almost every type of medication people take in their lifetime,” de Bolle said. “For certain psychiatric medications and pain relievers, there’s no doubt prices will rise.”
Christine McDaniel, a senior economist at George Mason University’s Mercatus Institute, suggests the industry may absorb some of the costs rather than passing them directly to consumers. But she acknowledges the strain: “It’s not completely devastating, but it’s definitely annoying.”
Medical Device Costs and Supply Chain Chaos
Beyond pharmaceuticals, the supply chain for medical devices is also at risk. Tariffs may force manufacturers to shift production, potentially fragmenting supply chains and increasing costs. “Maybe before, production was broken into five stages, but now it’s six or seven,” McDaniel explained. “Companies may source certain components from China but finish assembly in India or another country—adding layers of expense.”
Chris Pope believes the extent of price hikes on medical devices will depend on multiple factors, including where components are made and whether domestic subsidies can help offset costs. “It’s going to vary based on manufacturing locations, government policies, and international retaliation,” he said.
Should the U.S. Break Free from Chinese Drug Imports?
Trump’s tariffs have reignited a long-running debate: Should the U.S. reduce its dependency on Chinese-manufactured drugs? Lawmakers from both parties have pushed for domestic drug production, citing national security concerns. Some pharmaceutical companies have already begun diversifying supply chains in anticipation of future trade tensions.
“This issue isn’t new, and it’s not just about Trump,” de Bolle emphasized. “Both Democrats and Republicans have been discussing the need to bring drug manufacturing back to the U.S. for years. The question is whether these tariffs will accelerate that shift or simply make medications more expensive in the short term.”
As uncertainty looms, one thing is clear: Trump’s tariffs are shaking up the healthcare industry, and consumers may soon feel the effects where it hurts most—their wallets.
