In a groundbreaking report released on Thursday, a congressionally appointed bipartisan panel has recommended that the United States brace for possible simultaneous conflicts with both China and Russia. The report, issued by the Strategic Posture Commission, has called for significant expansions in conventional forces, strengthened alliances, and an enhanced nuclear weapons modernization program.*
Amid escalating tensions with China concerning Taiwan and other issues, as well as worsening frictions with Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine, the report emphasizes the necessity of preparedness. A senior official involved in the report, speaking anonymously, expressed concerns about potential coordination between China and Russia in the realm of nuclear weapons, leading to the unsettling prospect of facing two major adversaries at once.
“We worry… there may be ultimate coordination between them in some way, which gets us to this two-war construct,” the official stated.
This report challenges the existing U.S. national security strategy, which aims to win one conflict while deterring another, demanding substantial increases in defense spending. While acknowledging budget constraints, the panel, led by Democratic chair Madelyn Creedon and Vice Chair Jon Kyl, a retired Republican senator, insisted that these investments are imperative for the nation’s security.
During a briefing, Kyl stressed that higher defense spending is a small price to pay to potentially prevent a catastrophic nuclear war involving the United States, China, and Russia. However, this stance contradicts President Joe Biden’s belief that the current U.S. nuclear arsenal is sufficient to deter combined forces from Russia and China.
The Strategic Posture Commission’s report argues that the United States and its allies must be prepared to deter and defeat both adversaries simultaneously, as the U.S.-led international order and its underlying values are under threat from authoritarian regimes in China and Russia.
Established in 2022, the panel of six Democrats and six Republicans was tasked with assessing long-term threats to the United States and recommending changes in U.S. conventional and nuclear forces. The report is based on a Pentagon forecast that anticipates China will possess 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, making it a significant nuclear-armed rival.
According to the report, urgent decisions are necessary now to prepare for the acute threats posed by China and Russia between 2027 and 2035. It emphasizes the need to fully fund the 30-year U.S. nuclear arms modernization program, which began in 2010 and is estimated to cost around $400 billion by 2046. The program aims to upgrade all warheads, delivery systems, and infrastructure as per the schedule.
The report’s recommendations also include deploying more tactical nuclear weapons in Asia and Europe, developing plans to deploy reserve U.S. nuclear warheads, and increasing the production of B-21 stealth bombers and new Columbia-class nuclear submarines beyond current plans. Additionally, the panel called for boosting the “size, type, and posture” of U.S. and allied conventional forces. Failure to implement these measures, the report warned, could lead to increased reliance on nuclear weapons by the United States.
The report’s findings have sparked debates about the nation’s security priorities and the allocation of resources as the United States navigates an increasingly complex global landscape. The Biden administration is yet to officially respond to the recommendations made by the Strategic Posture Commission.
