Former President Donald Trump secured a resounding 30-point victory in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, marking the commencement of the 2024 GOP nominating contest. Trump’s triumph, confirmed by the Associated Press at 8:32 p.m. EST, solidifies his position as the frontrunner to challenge President Biden in the upcoming general election.
Despite icy conditions, Iowans also braved subzero temperatures to determine which Republican contender, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or former South Carolina Governor turned United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, would emerge as the principal alternative to Trump. The results were a split decision, with DeSantis securing approximately 21% and Haley close behind with around 19%, setting the stage for continued division within the party’s anti-Trump faction.
#### Good News for Trump
Trump’s victory surpassed expectations, with the former president setting an ambitious goal of achieving 50% support, a threshold no GOP candidate had ever reached. With over 90% of precincts reporting, Trump surpassed the historical margin set by Bob Dole in 1988, winning with an unprecedented 51% of the vote.
In a victory speech, Trump congratulated both DeSantis and Haley, acknowledging their strong performances and the unity within the party.
#### Did Haley Miss Her Chance?
Once considered the GOP’s most formidable Trump opponent, DeSantis faced a significant challenge as Haley surged ahead in Iowa’s final surveys following notable debate performances. Haley’s strategic spending on Iowa advertising, totaling $7.8 million over the last two weeks, outpaced DeSantis’s $6.1 million and Trump’s $3.5 million.
A narrow second-place finish for DeSantis in Iowa ensures his continued presence in the race, providing momentum for upcoming contests, including the New Hampshire primary on January 23.
#### Onward to New Hampshire
While Haley remains the only candidate in striking distance of Trump in New Hampshire, DeSantis, securing second place in Iowa, maintains a reason to campaign beyond the Hawkeye State. Haley’s double-digit lead over DeSantis in her home state of South Carolina positions Iowa as a pivotal turning point in the Republican primary, according to Haley.
Experts see New Hampshire as a crucial battleground for Trump challengers, where consolidating support is vital to gaining momentum against the former president.
Why Iowa Went for Trump
Despite adverse weather conditions leading to lower-than-usual turnout, approximately 120,000 Iowans participated in the caucuses, with a substantial majority supporting Trump. According to the AP’s VoteCast survey, three-quarters of caucus-goers viewed the charges against Trump as politically motivated rather than legitimate attempts to address alleged crimes.
The National Election Pool entrance poll revealed that 63% of respondents believed Trump could still serve as president if convicted of a crime, with his support among white evangelicals surging from 22% in 2016 to 53% this time.
“I’m here in part out of spite,” said Marc Smiarowski, a 44-year-old public utility worker, reflecting a sentiment echoed by many who rallied behind Trump despite the legal challenges he faces.
