President Joe Biden is confronting mounting global security threats, with experts cautioning that a failure to take decisive action could lead to severe consequences.
In a report released by GB on Wednesday, January 17, 2024, concerns extend from the Middle East to East Asia, involving Iran, Russia, China, and Ukraine.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards confirmed launching ballistic missiles near the US consulate in Erbil, northern Iraq, a move promptly denounced by the US State Department as “reckless.” Former military intelligence officer Colonel (Ret) Jonathan Sweet and foreign policy expert Mark Toth expressed their concerns, highlighting the ramifications of inaction.
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In a joint statement, they emphasized, “Neither Russia nor Iran has any intention of standing down. Postponing intervention only exacerbates the problem. This presents the Biden administration with a dilemma: address the issue now and bear the political cost of kinetic intervention or potentially face American lives at risk later.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Al Khamenei is perceived to be testing President Biden’s resolve across the Middle East. Toth and Sweet underscored the administration’s reluctance for direct confrontation with Iran, while Iran’s actions seem to be pushing in that direction.
The “Axis of Resistance,” consisting of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, has heightened attacks on Israel and commercial shipping routes, leading to retaliatory strikes by the US and UK.
In East Asia, tensions escalate with China expressing fury over the election of William Lai in Taiwan, who advocates for independence. President Biden’s statement reiterating the US non-support for Taiwan’s independence was criticized by Toth and Sweet as an attempt to appease Chinese President Xi Jinping. This adds another layer to the complex web of global challenges facing the Biden administration.
Leaked German intelligence documents have raised concerns in Eastern Europe, suggesting a potential path to war with Putin using Belarus as a launching pad for invasion. Republicans in Congress have impeded Biden’s efforts to deliver a $106 billion aid package to Kyiv, posing another challenge to the administration’s response to the evolving crises.
With an upcoming election, worries are mounting about Biden being overwhelmed by competing pressures. Toth and Sweet highlighted the risk, stating, “Domestic politics are coming into play…the White House appears to be on the path of least resistance.” They argue that this could convey the impression that Washington is willing to sacrifice its partners and deployed service members to avoid direct military intervention in the short term.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing threats to their countries, may feel compelled to act independently if US support falters. Toth and Sweet suggested that both leaders are prepared to go it alone if necessary, underscoring the critical nature of the threats they face.
