China has markedly expanded its nuclear capabilities, causing alarm among US officials and experts. According to a Pentagon report released on October 19, 2023, China has substantially bolstered its nuclear arsenal, now possessing around 500 operational warheads. This number marks a significant rise from the 400 warheads estimated by the Department of Defense in 2021, as reported by BBC on October 20, 2023.
China’s ambitions don’t end here; the nation aims to double its arsenal to over 1,000 warheads by 2030, a notable increase from its earlier goal of 600 warheads by 2025. The report highlights China’s efforts as surpassing previous attempts in both scale and complexity.
One of the concerning aspects noted in the report is the completion of three new clusters of missile sites in 2022, incorporating at least 300 new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) silos. ICBMs, ballistic missiles with a range exceeding 5,500km (3,400 miles), signify a considerable leap in China’s missile capabilities.
Despite these advancements, China’s nuclear stockpile is dwarfed by Russia and the US. Russia possesses approximately 5,889 warheads, and the US maintains 5,244, as reported by the independent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Crucially, the report underscores China’s commitment to a “no-first strike” policy, indicating that China will only resort to nuclear weapons if attacked with nuclear arms first. The purpose of China’s nuclear weapons, as stated in the report, is to deter potential aggressors rather than initiate offensive actions.
This revelation has elicited deep concerns among US officials and experts. Some experts fear that China’s nuclear expansion could spark a new arms race involving China, Russia, and the US. Others caution that China’s moves might destabilize the global nuclear order, compelling other nations to enhance their nuclear arsenals in response.
Henry Boyd, a senior fellow at the Henry Boyd International Institute for Strategic Studies, acknowledged that China’s rate of increase, while notable, did not appear excessively exceptional. He conceded that China seemed to be progressing slightly faster than initially estimated towards its goal of 1,000 warheads.
Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, described China’s nuclear expansion as a “serious concern” that could potentially trigger a new arms race in the region. US lawmakers, in response to these concerns, have called for increased funding for the US nuclear arsenal. Some have even advocated for augmenting the US nuclear arsenal in response to China’s escalations.
However, other lawmakers have cautioned against a new arms race, emphasizing the need for diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation. As global tensions mount, the world watches closely, hoping for strategic dialogue and cooperative efforts to maintain stability and peace.
