In anticipation of the 2024 presidential election, two recent polls in key swing states have delivered promising results for former President Donald Trump.
A potential rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden is on the horizon for 2024. Despite facing significant legal challenges this year, including 91 felony criminal counts and a civil court finding him liable for business fraud, Trump maintains a substantial lead over his GOP primary rivals, as per recent Emerson College Polling surveys.
Released on Wednesday and Thursday, these polls indicate Trump’s lead over Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, both of which are pivotal in determining the outcome of the next election. Trump is leading by a considerable nine points in Pennsylvania and maintaining a slight 2-point lead in Wisconsin.
However, it’s important to note that the outcome is far from certain over a year before the election. In both states, 19 percent of respondents either prefer “someone else” or remain undecided about their 2024 vote.
The Pennsylvania poll also reveals that Trump is winning voters under 30 by a margin of 45 to 39 percent, a surprising result given the preferences of Gen Z and young Millennial voters in most other surveys.
In Wisconsin, Emerson’s poll indicates that Biden is leading voters under 30 by a margin of 48 to 36 percent.
“In a state Biden won in 2020 by less than a percentage point, and Trump won in 2016 by nearly the same margin, [the Wisconsin] poll suggests a similar trajectory for 2024,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.
Newsweek reached out to both the Trump and Biden campaigns via email for comments on Thursday.
The polls were conducted via landline telephones and online from October 1 to October 4. The Pennsylvania poll surveyed 430 voters, while 532 voters were surveyed in Wisconsin. Emerson’s margin of credibility for the polls was 4.7 percent for Pennsylvania and 4.2 percent for Wisconsin.
It’s worth noting that Biden narrowly secured victories over Trump in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the 2020 election, earning a combined 30 Electoral College votes. In 2024, only 29 votes will be at stake, with Pennsylvania losing one Electoral College vote as a result of the 2020 Census reapportionment process.
Conversely, several states won by Trump in 2020, including Florida and Texas, gained Electoral College votes after the 2020 Census. If the 2024 results mirror those of 2020, Biden would still win, albeit with three fewer Electoral College votes, while Trump would gain three.
Recent polling has indicated a deadlock in a hypothetical rematch between Biden and Trump, both nationally and in most crucial swing states from the 2020 election. Nevertheless, an outlier Washington Post/ABC News poll released last month showed Trump with a 10-point national lead over Biden, with a significant 20-point lead among voters under 35, a result questioned by pollster Larry Sabato.
This news underscores the dynamic and competitive landscape in these key swing states, setting the stage for a closely watched 2024 election.
