Professor Allan Lichtman, renowned for his accurate predictions of U.S. presidential elections, has recently cast a spotlight on JD Vance’s potential role as Vice President and its implications for the upcoming election. Lichtman, who has gained fame as the ‘Nostradamus’ of elections due to his track record since President Reagan’s re-election in 1984, provided his insights in a recent interview and video analysis.
Lichtman, a professor at American University, has updated his forecasting model to reflect President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race, positioning Vice President Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee. According to Lichtman, Harris is currently in a favorable position, partly due to concerns about Vance’s suitability as a potential president.
In a YouTube video, Lichtman expressed serious reservations about JD Vance, should he be elected as Vice President under Donald Trump. Lichtman argues that while a VP pick may not directly determine the election’s outcome, it is still crucial. “I don’t think the VP pick turns the election, but a VP pick is incredibly important. That’s why JD Vance was such a disastrous pick; he would be a horror show as president,” Lichtman stated.
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Lichtman underscored that the vice presidency is often a stepping stone to the presidency, a reality evidenced by historical transitions. His criticism of Vance extends to Vance’s extreme views on issues such as Ukraine aid and abortion, which Lichtman believes are even more radical than Trump’s stances.
With Harris expected to announce her own vice-presidential pick soon, she has experienced a recent uptick in the polls since becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee. Lichtman’s predictive model currently shows a majority leaning in Harris’ favor with less than 100 days remaining until Election Day. His model evaluates various factors, including the absence of a primary challenger and a stable economy, which are beneficial to Harris.
Despite the loss of the incumbency advantage with Biden’s withdrawal, Lichtman remains cautious yet optimistic about Harris’ chances. He plans to finalize his prediction after the Democratic convention but has noted that a lot would need to go wrong for Democrats to lose. Polling data supports Lichtman’s view, with Trump holding a slight lead in recent averages and key battleground states showing a tight race.
The increased enthusiasm among Democrats and Harris’ improving approval ratings are seen as positive indicators. Lichtman’s assessment reflects a complex but promising outlook for Harris, as she navigates the final stages of the election campaign.
Lichtman’s final prediction is anticipated in August, providing clarity on how the dynamics will play out post-Democratic convention. For now, Harris appears to be strategically positioned, bolstered by favorable indicators and Lichtman’s predictive model.
This insight into JD Vance’s potential impact highlights the critical role of vice-presidential selections in shaping electoral outcomes, reinforcing the need for careful consideration of all candidates.
