A recent poll suggests that if former President Donald Trump loses the 2024 presidential election, a significant number of Americans anticipate he will refuse to concede defeat. Conducted by YouGov and published Saturday, the survey reveals that 67% of respondents believe Trump, the Republican nominee, is likely to contest the results should Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, win.
Americans Divided Over Trump’s Possible Reaction
When asked about the likelihood of Trump conceding, 82% of Democrats said it was improbable he would accept a Harris victory, compared to 55% of Republicans who agreed with this view. Meanwhile, 18% of all respondents were undecided, and only 16% felt it was unlikely that Trump would contest a loss.
The online poll surveyed 1,149 U.S. adults between October 29 and October 31, and was weighted based on various demographic and political factors, with a margin of error of 4%.
Trump’s Stance on Election Integrity
Responding to the poll, Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt highlighted Trump’s consistent call for “free and fair elections,” refraining from directly commenting on whether Trump would concede if Harris were declared the winner.
Trump has repeatedly expressed distrust in the electoral process since 2020, following his claims of widespread voter fraud that fueled the January 6 Capitol riots. These assertions were widely disputed by courts and independent analysts but continue to resonate among segments of the Republican base.
Varying Perceptions of Harris’s Potential Response
Interestingly, respondents saw it as less likely that Kamala Harris would refuse to concede if she lost. Just 16% felt it was very likely she would dispute a loss, while only 7% of Democrats shared this concern. However, among Republicans, 31% believed Harris might refuse to concede.
Widespread Concerns Over Electoral Integrity
A separate poll conducted exclusively for Newsweek by Redfield & Wilton Strategies in October indicates that 44% of Republican voters feel Trump should concede if he loses, while 34% believe he should not.
Andrew Wroe, a senior lecturer in American politics, expressed doubts about Trump conceding under any circumstances, stating, “He has repeatedly claimed that a fair election means he wins.” According to Wroe, Trump’s stance could signal a pivotal moment in American democracy, heightening the risk of unrest or even political violence if he encourages his supporters to question the election’s legitimacy.
A Tight Race and the Stakes for Swing States
As the election reaches its final stretch, polling data from 538 indicates a razor-thin race, with Harris holding a slim 1.1-point lead nationally. In critical swing states, Trump holds a slight edge in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina, while Harris leads narrowly in Michigan and Wisconsin.
