A recent poll has revealed that Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein may be pulling more voters away from former President Donald Trump than from Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. This development, which echoes concerns from the 2016 election, could significantly influence the outcome in crucial swing states.
Stein’s Impact on the 2024 Election
According to the Noble Predictive Insights survey, Harris narrowly leads Trump in a hypothetical three-way race, holding 49% of the vote compared to Trump’s 47%. When Stein is added to the equation, Trump’s support dips to 46%, while Harris maintains her 49%, signaling that Stein may be siphoning votes from Trump’s base. Although Stein currently holds only 1% of the vote, that small percentage could become pivotal in a closely contested election.
The poll, which surveyed 2,300 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.1%, highlights how even a minor candidate can impact the dynamics of a race, especially in key battleground states.
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A Repeat of 2016?
This scenario recalls the 2016 presidential race, when many Democrats accused Stein of drawing away crucial votes from Hillary Clinton in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, ultimately aiding Trump’s victory. In that election, Stein received more votes than Trump’s margin of victory in all three states, raising concerns that her candidacy functioned as a spoiler.
In Michigan, Trump won by just over 10,000 votes, while Stein garnered more than 51,000 votes. The pattern was similar in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Trump’s narrow victories were overshadowed by Stein’s tally of votes.
Controversy Surrounding Stein’s Campaign
Adding complexity to Stein’s 2024 campaign is her recent endorsement by David Duke, a former Ku Klux Klan leader and white supremacist. Duke’s endorsement, based on Stein’s criticism of U.S. policy on Israel, stirred controversy, despite Stein’s public rejection of his support. She referred to Duke as a “racist troll” in a social media post, distancing herself from his extremist views.
Duke’s support, however, signals a shift in some far-right voters who may feel alienated by Trump’s foreign policy, particularly his stance on Israel. While this endorsement is unlikely to sway a significant number of voters, it highlights how Stein’s candidacy could attract a faction of Trump’s base that feels disillusioned.
The Stakes for Trump and Harris
For Trump, the emergence of Stein as a potential spoiler poses a serious challenge, particularly in battleground states. A slight shift in votes could determine the outcome in critical areas, where margins are often razor-thin. For Harris, Stein’s presence in the race could actually provide an advantage, potentially narrowing Trump’s path to victory by pulling away voters who might otherwise lean toward the former president.
