2024 presidential election draws nearer, recent polling in five critical swing states reveals a tight race, with President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in three states and in a deadlock in two others.
The outcome of the 2024 election is expected to hinge on just a handful of key states. In 2016, Trump successfully flipped Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all of which had voted for former President Barack Obama in 2012. However, Biden managed to reclaim these states for the Democrats in 2020, while also narrowly flipping Georgia and Arizona, traditionally Republican strongholds.
The Electoral College system, which assigns each state a certain number of electoral votes, ultimately decides the presidential election. A candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.
Despite recent gains against Trump in national and state-level polls, Biden appears to be facing a tough battle in several critical swing states. Let’s take a closer look at where things stand in these five pivotal states with a little over six months remaining until Election Day on November 5.
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Arizona in the 2020 election, winning the state by just 0.3 percent of the vote (49.4 percent to 49.1 percent). However, recent polling suggests that Trump currently has the edge in Arizona. According to the Real Clear Politics average, Trump is leading by approximately 4.5 points (49 percent to 44.5 percent).
A poll conducted by The Tyson Group from April 10 to 11, surveying 600 likely Arizona voters, showed Trump leading Biden by 6 points (39 percent to 33 percent). The survey included third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (12 percent), Cornel West (2 percent), Jill Stein (2 percent), and Lars Mapstead (1 percent), with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
In late March, RABA Research conducted a poll in Arizona, showing Trump at 39 percent and Biden at 36 percent among 503 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points. Notably, no poll conducted in Arizona this year has shown Biden leading Trump thus far.
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
Similar to Arizona, Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Georgia in 2020, marking the first time the state voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992. However, recent polling indicates that Trump currently has the advantage in Georgia. The Real Clear Politics average shows Trump leading at about 49.7 percent, compared to Biden’s 45.5 percent.
The most recent poll conducted by Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research from April 11 to 16 shows Trump leading Biden by 6 points. Trump has the support of 51 percent of registered Georgia voters, compared to 45 percent who back the Democratic incumbent. The survey included 1,128 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
Polling data from The Wall Street Journal/Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO in late March also showed Trump in the lead, with Trump at 42 percent and Biden at 38 percent among 600 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. As with Arizona, every poll conducted in Georgia this year has shown Trump leading Biden.
Michigan (15 electoral votes)
Although Biden won Michigan in 2020, Trump narrowly flipped the state in 2016. Presently, Trump appears to be favored over Biden in Michigan. According to the RealClear Politics average, Trump is leading with approximately 47.4 percent, compared to Biden’s 44.1 percent.
The recent Fox News poll from April 11 to 16 showed Trump ahead by 3 points, with the Republican at 49 percent and Biden at 46 percent in the state.
Polling of 600 likely Michigan voters by Marketing Resource Group (MRG) conducted from April 8 to 11 also showed Trump in the lead. Trump had 37 percent support, while Biden had 34 percent. Third-party candidates were included in the survey, with Kennedy Jr. at 13 percent, Stein at 2 percent, and West at 1 percent. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.
