In a worrisome turn of events for the Democratic Party, President Joe Biden finds himself at the center of a political maelstrom as recent polls unveil a significant drop in his approval ratings, sounding the alarm for Democrats gearing up for the 2024 election.
According to a report by Fox News on Thursday, December 21, 2023, various polls, including a Monmouth University survey, disclose that a mere 34% of Americans approve of President Biden’s performance, marking an unprecedented nadir in his approval ratings.
Political science professor David Faris, contributing to Slate, characterizes the situation as “even worse than it looks,” asserting that Democrats should be in a state of panic.
Faris delves into the historical context, stating that Biden’s predicament may be the most challenging faced by an incumbent president since the advent of polling in the 1930s, presenting a dire situation for any Democratic presidential candidate in decades.
“Panic is entirely warranted,” Faris emphasizes.
Comparing Biden’s approval ratings with those of past incumbents at this juncture of the election cycle, Faris highlights a stark contrast. Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump enjoyed higher approval ratings—58%, 45%, and 44%, respectively.
In contrast, Biden’s average approval stands at a meager 40.5%, with a net -15.4, nearly twice as unfavorable as Trump on net. Faris notes that Biden finds himself in a considerably more precarious position than Trump, who ultimately lost his second campaign.
While recognizing the limitations of historical approval ratings as the sole predictor of election outcomes, Faris contends that Biden’s current standing is notably grim.
Despite Democrats surpassing expectations in the 2022 and 2023 elections even amid Biden’s unpopularity, Faris argues that heightened partisan polarization has disrupted the traditional correlation between economic factors and election outcomes.
This shift implies that even if the Biden administration could reshape public perceptions of the economy, it might not necessarily translate into altered voting preferences.
“That’s the outcome predicted by the available data today. Taken together, the picture painted by horse-race polling and approval ratings makes Biden possibly the most vulnerable incumbent president since scientific polling was invented,” Faris writes.
He draws attention to the uniqueness of Biden’s situation, being the only incumbent president with both approval ratings and head-to-head polling in such dire straits at this stage of the race—paralleling the circumstances of Donald Trump, who eventually lost his re-election bid.
Faris underscores the historical significance of a potential Biden comeback, stating that the president would “truly be making history” if he manages to reverse the current trend of poor polling.
In conclusion, the professor’s analysis paints a grim picture, suggesting that Biden faces an uphill battle to secure a second term, with his approval ratings and polling data presenting challenges rarely witnessed in modern political history.
