In a surprising turn of events, Mark McKinnon, a key advisor to former Republican presidential candidates George W. Bush and John McCain, made a bold prediction regarding the upcoming November election. He expressed unwavering certainty that Vice President Kamala Harris has already won, stating, “This sucker is baked.”
Harris’s Election Victory “Inevitable”
McKinnon, who previously served as the chief media strategist for two GOP campaigns, believes the 2024 election is Harris’s to lose. In a recent interview with Vanity Fair, McKinnon explained his reasoning, asserting, “Kamala Harris is going to win. Maybe easily.” He further clarified that the outcome of the election is practically set in stone due to various underlying factors shaping the political landscape.
In his statement, McKinnon referenced the unpredictability of Trump’s campaign, stating that his erratic behavior during town halls, where he disengaged and seemed out of touch, has become normalized. According to McKinnon, there are no major events left in the election cycle that could sway the outcome. Even significant global events, like conflict in the Middle East or natural disasters, are unlikely to affect the inevitable.
Key Factors Favoring Harris
McKinnon believes that the primary factor driving Harris’s projected victory is voter turnout. He pointed out that higher turnout historically benefits Democratic candidates, and the numbers back up his claim. Despite Republican control of the Senate, the population represented by Democratic senators is significantly larger. While only 150 million people live in states with Republican senators, over 204 million people are represented by Democratic senators, creating a notable disparity in representation.
This demographic advantage, McKinnon argues, works entirely in Harris’s favor. He further emphasized that there are no true “undecided voters” this election cycle, making polling data less reliable. McKinnon also pointed to voter enthusiasm, noting that Democratic voters are more energized for this election than they have been since 2008, giving Harris an edge that polling may not fully capture.
The Gender Gap and Enthusiasm Surge
One of the most significant aspects of Harris’s projected win, according to McKinnon, is the gender gap. He highlighted the profound impact of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which overturned federal abortion rights, fueling a surge in female voter turnout. Many women, McKinnon believes, are driven by anger and frustration, motivated to break the “glass ceiling” by electing Harris as the first female president of the United States.
McKinnon also noted the stark contrast between the two campaigns’ ground games. While Democrats are paying their field workers to ensure a robust voter mobilization effort, Republicans are relying mostly on volunteers. This difference, combined with Harris’s energized base, sets the stage for a strong Democratic performance in November.
Trump’s Waning Influence
Meanwhile, McKinnon paints a bleak picture of Trump’s campaign. He described the former president as looking and sounding old, often making comments that suggest mental fatigue. Trump has avoided debates, dodged interviews, and failed to answer straightforward questions in town halls. His once-dominant presence seems to be fading, and McKinnon suggests that his age and declining mental state are weakening his appeal among voters.
On the other hand, Harris has been taking every opportunity to engage with the media, even appearing on outlets that have historically been unfriendly to her. McKinnon believes that this tenacity, combined with Harris’s composure, confidence, and willingness to face the challenges head-on, has strengthened her position significantly.
