A recent survey conducted by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll has unveiled intriguing insights into the potential 2024 presidential race, showcasing the influence of third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the electoral dynamics. The data suggests that Kennedy’s independent candidacy could significantly impact the outcome of the election, potentially securing a decisive victory for President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump.
According to the poll results released on October 18, 2023, President Biden would establish a substantial 7-percentage-point lead over Trump if Kennedy were included in the race. In this hypothetical scenario, Biden commands 44% of the vote, with Trump securing 37%, and Kennedy gathering 16%. The poll also reveals that 3% of voters remain undecided.
A crucial observation from the poll data is Kennedy’s ability to draw more support away from Trump than Biden. Known for his anti-vaccine stance, which resonates with some conservatives, Kennedy appears to impact the Republican base significantly. With Kennedy in the race, Biden’s share of the Democratic vote drops by 5 percentage points, while Trump experiences a more notable decline of 10 points among Republicans.
Despite facing criticism, including disapproval from his own family, Kennedy has gained significant exposure through conservative media outlets, particularly Fox News. This visibility might position him as a favored choice among Democrats when the November 2024 elections approach.
Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, emphasized the complexity of assessing the impact of a third-party candidate. However, he noted, “What this indicates is that approximately one in six voters are seeking an alternative option, especially among independents.”
The poll, conducted on October 11 and based on responses from 1,313 American adults, also revealed that in a direct head-to-head contest, President Biden leads Trump by a margin of 3 percentage point.
