Former President Donald Trump emerges as a frontrunner in a hypothetical three-way race against President Joe Biden and Democrat-turned-independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr, in a recent Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll. The poll, conducted on October 18-19, 2024, surveyed 2,116 registered voters, shedding light on the intricate dynamics of the upcoming 2024 election.
The Numbers
According to the poll results reported on October 21, 2024, Trump commands a significant 39 percent of the support in the three-way race. Biden closely trails at 33 percent, with Kennedy securing 19 percent. For the 9 percent of respondents initially unsure, when pressed, Trump’s support strengthened to 42 percent, Biden’s to 36 percent, and Kennedy’s to 22 percent. In a two-way race against Biden, Trump maintains a 5-percentage-point lead, with 46 percent compared to Biden’s 41 percent. Notably, 14 percent of respondents remained undecided.
Biden’s Gains and Trump’s Popularity
Comparing these results to a similar poll conducted in September, Biden gained one percentage point, while Trump made a two-point advance. Despite Biden’s slight edge in this particular poll, Trump’s overall popularity among GOP voters looms large. In the context of the 2024 Republican primary, Trump emerges as a dominant choice, receiving a remarkable 60 percent of the support. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis lags significantly behind with 11 percent, while other potential contenders trail with less than 10 percent each.
Expert Insights
Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll, emphasized the significance of these findings. He acknowledged the importance of the time between now and the 2024 election while noting Trump’s notable advantage. Penn’s insights underline Trump’s enduring appeal in both primary and general election scenarios, making him a formidable contender.
Biden’s Lead and Potential Matchups
However, it’s crucial to note that despite Trump’s promising performance, President Biden maintains an overall lead in head-to-head matchups against potential Republican contenders. When pitted against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Biden secured 44 percent support to DeSantis’s 40 percent. In a matchup against former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Biden claimed 42 percent, with Haley trailing at 38 percent.
Conclusion
While these poll results provide a snapshot of the current political landscape, the upcoming events and developments leading to the 2024 election remain uncertain. Trump’s substantial support, especially within the Republican party, underscores his continued influence. As the political landscape evolves, these numbers are bound to shift, making the 2024 election a closely watched and highly anticipated event in the United States.
