Donald Trump is making headlines with his decision to visit two traditionally Democratic states—New Mexico and Virginia—during his presidential campaign. This strategy, which has included stops in other blue strongholds like California and New York, has sparked debate among political analysts and party insiders. While some believe these visits could benefit down-ballot Republican candidates, others question the wisdom of diverting attention from more competitive battlegrounds.
Unconventional Strategy
As the 2024 election approaches, Trump is focusing on states where he lost by significant margins in the past. His latest rally in Albuquerque, New Mexico, scheduled for Thursday, is a notable shift from his usual stops in key battlegrounds that are expected to determine the election outcome. On Saturday, he plans to campaign in Salem, Virginia, continuing this unusual focus on states with a Democratic lean.
Republican strategist Alex Conant highlights the importance of time in a campaign, stating, “The most limited resource at this point is time. If he ends up losing Pennsylvania by 1,000 votes, he’ll regret having spent time in Virginia.” Trump lost both New Mexico and Virginia by double digits in the last election cycle, making this strategy seem even more risky.
Confidence vs. Reality
Trump’s team is projecting optimism about his national prospects, even as public opinion polls indicate a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris. A Virginia Republican strategist commented anonymously, suggesting that Trump’s visits to these states are more about demonstrating confidence than making serious electoral gains. If the goal were to win Virginia, the campaign would focus on more competitive areas with larger populations.
Despite the positive spin from Trump’s team, nonpartisan analysts remain skeptical. Both New Mexico and Virginia are classified as “Likely Democratic” by The Cook Political Report. A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll indicated that Harris leads Trump by six points among likely voters in Virginia.
Misinformation and Public Perception
Trump’s history of questioning election integrity has also come into play. He has begun hinting at potential “cheating” in states like Pennsylvania, despite election officials affirming the security of the upcoming vote. His comments have raised concerns about whether he may attempt to delegitimize the election results if he loses again.
His blue state rallies have drawn large crowds and generated significant media attention. At a recent rally in Madison Square Garden, some speakers made derogatory comments, demonstrating the polarized atmosphere surrounding Trump’s campaign. In another instance, Trump proclaimed his intentions to win California, despite the fact that the last Republican presidential candidate to do so was George H.W. Bush.
Dismissal from Opponents
The Democratic Party of Virginia has dismissed Trump’s visit as mere theatrics. Chairwoman Susan Swecker remarked, “Virginians see through his empty theatrics—they keep rejecting his chaos every time.” She emphasized the Democratic Party’s strong performance in early voting, citing a robust ground game involving 25,000 volunteers and a significant number of doors knocked.
While some Republican strategists believe Trump’s visits to California and New York may help boost candidates in crucial House races, the strategy behind targeting New Mexico and Virginia remains perplexing. Currently, neither Trump’s campaign nor affiliated super PACs have invested in television ads in these states, according to tracking firm AdImpact.
Looking Ahead
As Trump continues his campaign, his focus appears to shift back to more competitive battleground states. Upcoming rallies are planned in Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, where both parties are concentrating their efforts. Whether his unorthodox blue state visits will pay off or become a campaign misstep remains to be seen, but they certainly add an intriguing layer to the 2024 election narrative.
