Former President Donald Trump is ramping up his demands for a swift declaration of the presidential election winner on election night, insisting that the results should be known shortly after polls close on Tuesday. This push echoes his actions during the 2020 election, when he prematurely claimed victory in the early hours of November 4, leading to calls from his supporters to “stop the count.” His continued assertions about election fraud have fueled frustrations over the lengthy vote-counting process in the United States.
Why Quick Results Are Unlikely
Several factors contribute to the unlikelihood of quickly knowing the election results. Key among these is the refusal of Republican lawmakers in crucial swing states to modify laws that delay vote counting. Additionally, indications suggest that this election will be particularly close, and close races naturally require more time to determine a winner accurately.
Election experts emphasize that the primary goal of vote counting is to ensure accuracy and security, rather than to provide immediate results. “There’s nothing nefarious about it,” said Rick Hasen, a law professor at UCLA. “The time delay is to protect the integrity of the process.”
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The Complexities of U.S. Elections
Trump’s demands overlook the complexities of election logistics across six time zones. David Becker, an elections expert and co-author of “The Big Truth,” points out the impracticality of expecting election officials across thousands of jurisdictions to count 160 million ballots instantly.
At a recent rally in Pennsylvania, Trump insisted that the race be decided by 9, 10, or 11 o’clock on election night, calling the situation a result of “crooked people.” However, as polls close on the East Coast, voting will just be concluding in the two Western swing states of Arizona and Nevada. Unlike countries such as France and Argentina, which can quickly tally results for single elections, the decentralized nature of U.S. elections means results are counted in nearly 10,000 jurisdictions, each managing multiple races simultaneously.
Timing and Election Calls
The Associated Press, known for its election coverage since 1848, only calls races when it becomes impossible for the trailing candidate to close the gap. In close contests, every vote counts, and it can take longer for all ballots to be counted, even in efficient jurisdictions.
For instance, in the 2018 Florida Senate race, Republican Rick Scott’s victory was not announced until November 20 due to the narrow margin and the subsequent recount. The counting process also involves handling provisional ballots and ensuring the legitimacy of overseas ballots, which can arrive late.
State-Specific Rules Contributing to Delays
State-specific election laws further complicate timely results. In crucial swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Republican lawmakers have historically resisted changing rules that prevent the early processing of mail ballots. This leads to delays in tallying results, often making it appear as though Republicans are leading until Democratic mail-in votes are counted later.
States such as Arizona allow voters whose mail ballots were rejected due to signature mismatches additional time to verify their ballots, which further complicates timely results. Michigan, however, has seen a shift in processing mail ballots early since Democrats gained control of the state Legislature.
Calls for Swift Victory Declarations
Some of Trump’s allies have urged him to adopt a more aggressive stance in declaring victory. Steve Bannon, a longtime supporter, suggested that Trump should have declared victory even earlier in the 2020 election cycle. Meanwhile, other supporters have hinted at potential unrest in states still counting ballots, suggesting that public sentiment may not tolerate delayed results.
Despite Trump’s insistence that early voting trends favor him, early voting data does not accurately predict election outcomes, as it only shows who has voted without indicating their choices. Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is actively working to engage Republican voters disillusioned by Trump, which may shift the dynamics in key states.
