Donald Trump may have gained ground with Black voters in the 2024 election, but new polling suggests that momentum has crumbled. His approval rating among Black Americans is now the lowest of any racial demographic, signaling a major challenge for his campaign.
A Shifting Political Landscape
The 2024 election saw Trump making historic gains with Black voters, securing 16 percent of the demographic—the highest level of Black support for a Republican candidate since George W. Bush in 1977. This marked a sharp rise from the 12 percent he won in 2020 and just 8 percent in 2016. Trump’s appeal to Black voters was particularly notable in swing states, where he increased his support by 13 points in Wisconsin and saw 5-point gains in North Carolina and Georgia.
However, recent polls indicate that whatever inroads Trump made with Black Americans may have been short-lived.
Approval Ratings Plummet
According to a YouGov/Economist poll, only 24 percent of Black respondents approve of Trump’s performance, while a staggering 69 percent disapprove. This stands in stark contrast to his approval among white voters, 57 percent of whom support him, and Hispanic voters, who are split with 40 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving.
A McLaughlin & Associates poll conducted in mid-February revealed similar numbers, showing that just 29 percent of Black Americans approve of Trump, compared to 64 percent who disapprove. Meanwhile, his approval rating among Hispanic voters was 46 percent, while white voters remained his strongest base, with 54 percent approval.
An Emerson College poll conducted around the same time showed Trump’s Black approval rating at 23 percent, with 63 percent disapproving. In that survey, Trump performed significantly better among white voters (54 percent approval) and even among Asian Americans (44 percent approval).
Conflicting Data and a Growing Divide
While most polls indicate Trump’s struggles with Black voters, a January AtlasIntel poll painted a drastically different picture, suggesting that 69 percent of Black voters approve of Trump’s job performance—far higher than the numbers found in other surveys. That same poll found that immigration is a major issue for Black voters, with 72 percent considering it a key challenge—one of Trump’s signature policy areas. However, the YouGov/Economist poll contradicts this, showing that only 30 percent of Black voters approve of Trump’s handling of immigration.
Democrats Face Their Own Challenges
Although Trump is struggling with Black voters, Democrats are also facing hurdles in maintaining support from the community. A recent 2040 Strategy Group poll found that just 18 percent of Black respondents strongly agreed that the Democratic Party’s strategy to counter Trump was effective.
Furthermore, 68 percent of respondents strongly believed that defending Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) programs from Trump’s policies should be a priority for Democrats. However, the challenge for the party is finding a way to defend these programs without allowing them to define their entire political message.
The Battle Over DEI
On his first day in office, Trump took aim at DEI programs, ordering the removal of federal officials overseeing diversity initiatives and dismantling funding for such efforts. A memo from the Office of Personnel Management directed agencies to place DEI staff on leave and begin staff reductions by January 31. The Department of Government Efficiency later confirmed that the Department of Education had terminated 70 DEI-related grants worth $373 million.
As Trump intensifies his crackdown on diversity initiatives, Democrats are under pressure to prove the real-world benefits of these programs. Rashad Robinson, former leader of the progressive civil rights group Color of Change, told The New York Times, “If we make the case simply through a moral lens, we will lose. Right now, we have to make the business case.”
What Comes Next?
Trump’s approval among Black voters remains a critical issue heading into the next election cycle. While younger Black men have shown increasing support for him, overall numbers indicate a major uphill battle. Meanwhile, Democrats must work to re-engage disillusioned Black voters and present a compelling case for their leadership.
The question now is whether Trump’s declining numbers among Black Americans will hold—or if Democrats’ internal struggles will give him a second chance to make gains.
