If you’re gearing up for an epic Super Bowl party, you might want to hit the grocery store ASAP—because your guacamole could get a lot more expensive. A new round of tariffs announced by former President Donald Trump is set to shake up food prices, and avocados are right in the crosshairs.
With just days to go before the big game, a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada is looming, triggering potential price hikes on some of the most essential Super Bowl party foods. Avocados, which are the foundation of everyone’s favorite game-day dip, guacamole, are overwhelmingly imported from Mexico. And if you haven’t stocked up yet, you might be in for a rude surprise at checkout.
The United States relies heavily on Mexico for its avocado supply, especially in the lead-up to Super Bowl Sunday. According to Avocados From Mexico, a marketing group for the industry, a staggering 95% of avocados sold ahead of the big game come from Mexico. To meet demand, approximately 250 million pounds of avocados are shipped across the border during this time—a number large enough to fill 30 million football helmets with guacamole.
This year, the game falls on February 9, just five days after the tariffs are scheduled to take effect. While many avocados have already made their way into U.S. stores, shoppers hoping for the freshest picks may find themselves paying steeper prices due to the economic ripple effect of tariffs. Economists widely agree that the cost of tariffs is typically passed down to consumers, meaning grocery bills could start creeping up just as Super Bowl party shopping hits its peak.
Avocados aren’t the only game-day staple feeling the pinch. Tomatoes, another key ingredient for salsa and other Super Bowl snacks, have already seen price increases over the past year. A recent Wells Fargo analysis found that cherry tomato prices have jumped 11.9%, while avocado prices have climbed 11.5%—and that was before Trump’s new tariffs entered the picture.
The financial impact of these price hikes is especially significant in states like Texas and California, which are among the top consumers of avocados. According to a Texas A&M University study, California imported nearly $602 million worth of Mexican avocados between mid-2023 and mid-2024, while Texas brought in around $285 million worth. The same study found that every dollar spent on avocado imports generates $2.13 in U.S. economic activity, supporting over 42,000 American jobs—more than 5,000 of which are in California and nearly 3,000 in Texas.
Trade groups have voiced concerns about the tariffs’ impact on both consumers and workers in the fresh produce industry. The Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, based in Nogales, Arizona, has warned that while securing the U.S.-Mexico border is important, imposing tariffs might not be the solution—and could even discourage healthier eating habits by driving up the cost of fresh produce.
With Super Bowl Sunday fast approaching, the clock is ticking for shoppers looking to get the best deals on their game-day spreads. If guacamole is a must-have on your menu, now might be the time to grab those avocados before prices spike.
