President Donald Trump is touting a lucrative new deal with Ukraine as a game-changer for the U.S., but the reality is far more complicated. The agreement, which aims to grant American companies access to Ukraine’s vast reserves of rare earth minerals, has ignited controversy among European allies and economic experts.
Trump, speaking on Tuesday, hailed the potential deal as a “very big” opportunity, suggesting it would provide Kyiv with military equipment and long-term economic benefits. However, despite claims that Ukraine is sitting on mineral deposits worth trillions, major challenges stand in the way of turning this into a financial windfall for the U.S.
The Hidden Hurdles Behind Ukraine’s Rare Earth Riches
Ukraine reportedly holds about 5% of the world’s critical raw materials, including lithium, titanium, cobalt, nickel, copper, graphite, and uranium. Yet, there’s little modern data on the exact quantity and accessibility of these resources. Many estimates rely on Soviet-era surveys, and much of the information remains classified due to Ukraine’s ongoing martial law.
Roman Opimakh, former director general of the Ukrainian Geological Survey, has warned that without updated assessments, the true value of Ukraine’s reserves remains uncertain. Moreover, a section of the Ukrainian government’s website that previously listed potential mineral resources is now inaccessible, further clouding the picture.
War-Torn Infrastructure and Security Risks
Even if the minerals exist in abundance, extracting them is another challenge entirely. Years of war have ravaged Ukraine’s mining infrastructure and energy grid. Experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies note that rebuilding power networks and industrial facilities will require billions in investment before large-scale mining can even begin.
Developing a single mine can cost up to $4 million, and major operations—such as the coking coal plant in Pokrovsk, Ukraine’s largest industrial facility—could demand as much as $10 billion. Given Ukraine’s unstable security situation, foreign investors may be reluctant to pour money into high-risk projects.
Russia’s Shadow Looms Over Ukraine’s Resources
A significant portion of Ukraine’s most valuable mineral deposits lie in the country’s eastern regions—territory currently occupied by Russian forces or within striking distance of their military. Even if Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy reach a peace agreement, experts caution that the risk of renewed conflict and land seizures will continue to deter investment.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already highlighted the country’s natural resources as a key part of his “Victory Plan,” offering strategic partners investment opportunities. However, a secret annex attached to the plan suggests that only certain nations will receive full access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth—an issue that could spark geopolitical tensions.
The U.S. Wants a Cut—But Will It Pay Off?
Trump has framed the proposed minerals deal as a way for the U.S. to recover the $350 billion he claims America has provided in aid to Ukraine over the past three years. Under the agreement, a jointly-owned U.S.-Ukrainian reconstruction investment fund would be established, allowing American companies to develop and profit from Ukraine’s resources.
However, sources indicate that the latest version of the agreement falls short of initial U.S. demands, which sought control over $500 billion worth of Ukrainian resources. The deal also excludes oil and gas, as well as many of Ukraine’s top revenue-generating minerals.
Carl Bildt, a former Swedish prime minister and senior European policy expert, dismissed the mineral deal as a “sideshow” designed to appease Trump. “It is not going to give a lot of money to the U.S., and I don’t see it having any material economic effect for very many years,” Bildt told BBC News.
Will Ukraine Demand More Security Guarantees?
While negotiations continue, Ukraine is pushing for security assurances as part of the deal—a condition that is currently absent from the draft agreement. Zelenskyy is expected to raise the issue when he meets with Trump in Washington, D.C., on Friday.
With so many unresolved factors at play, Trump’s “very big” Ukraine minerals deal may be far from the easy victory he claims.
