The presidential race has taken a dramatic turn as a new poll from The New York Times reveals a shift in the lead across three crucial battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Vice President Kamala Harris has surged ahead of former President Donald Trump, now leading by four percentage points in these key areas.
According to the poll, 50% of likely voters in these states support Harris, compared to 46% for Trump, as reported by Daily Mail on August 10, 2024. This significant shift follows President Joe Biden’s unexpected withdrawal from the race, positioning Harris as the Democratic nominee.
Harris’s rise is notable, especially given Trump’s earlier momentum. Her lead extends across several demographic groups, including white voters without a college degree, Black voters, and young voters—groups that had previously shown declining support for Biden.
Harris has also managed to hold support among older voters, a crucial demographic in these swing states. Despite her overall lead, she faces challenges, particularly concerning the economy and immigration. Trump maintains a nine-point lead over Harris on economic issues, which remain central to many voters’ concerns.
On abortion rights, however, Harris holds a commanding 24-point advantage, surpassing Biden’s previous lead on the issue. Despite this, 42% of voters believe Harris is too liberal, a higher percentage than those who viewed Biden as too liberal last October. Trump’s campaign has seized on this perception, portraying Harris as a left-wing extremist.
The poll reveals that this line of attack has not resonated strongly with voters, with nearly two-thirds considering Harris to be more intelligent than Trump. Within the Democratic base, Harris’s nomination has boosted enthusiasm, with a 27-point increase in voter satisfaction since she replaced Biden.
Voters like John Jordan from Croydon, Pennsylvania, have expressed pride in Harris’s candidacy, hoping she will make history as the first African American/Asian woman in the White House. Conversely, some voters, such as Jonathan Ball from Jackson, Michigan, remain skeptical about Harris’s support for working Americans, reflecting ongoing challenges for her campaign.
The poll also explores reactions to Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, who has faced backlash for controversial comments. This has led to a negative perception among independent voters, with one-third expressing dissatisfaction and 17% feeling angry about his selection.
In contrast, Harris’s vice-presidential pick, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, has been more favorably received among Democrats. In Pennsylvania, 48% of Democrats are excited about Walz, although polling in Wisconsin and Michigan was conducted before his announcement.
As the race heats up, the first face-to-face debate between Harris and Trump is set for September 10 on ABC. Trump has called for additional debates on September 4 and September 25, to be hosted by Fox and NBC, respectively. Harris has expressed willingness for more debates but has opposed a Fox-hosted debate, preferring networks that sponsored recent primary debates.
The upcoming debate on September 10 is expected to be pivotal, offering voters a direct comparison between the two candidates. Harris’s ability to maintain her lead may depend on her performance in these debates and her ability to address key voter concerns, particularly on the economy and immigration.
