A decade ago, Barack Obama’s failure to enforce his “red line” in Syria left the world questioning the resolve of the US. Fast forward to the unexpected tenure of Donald Trump, who surprised many by taking principled action against Bashar al-Assad’s air force. Now, as governments globally attempt to anticipate the foreign policies of a potential second Trump administration, predictions are mired in uncertainty. Trump’s egoism, a potent yet ambiguous force in politics, makes forecasting his actions akin to predicting the weather a few decades ahead.
Under a second Trump term, it is probable that the US will scale back sanctions against Russia and reduce support to Ukraine. This move, ostensibly about prioritizing America’s interests, might ironically weaken the nation’s global standing. Trump’s nationalist stance could also lead to increased threats against international treaties such as NATO, bilateral agreements with South Korea and Japan, and possibly the World Trade Organization.
Despite these potential disruptions, some continuity is expected. Trump’s approach towards China, for instance, might surprise the world. While he initially intensified hostility, his grievances were narrowly economic. If respected on trade, he might not seek to aggressively “contain” China, unlike other US policymakers. The Taiwan issue epitomizes this. While Biden has hinted at direct defense, Trump remains ambiguous, indicating a focus on economic concerns rather than broader geopolitical strategies.
Washington’s anxiety stems not just from Taiwan but from the fear that US allies might lose faith in the American empire without intervention. However, what if Trump sees this empire as folly? His narrow worldview, centered on financial gains, raises questions about his commitment to defending far-off lands. While some speculate that the pandemic radicalized his anti-China stance, his disinterest in details might lead him to overlook the executive branch’s China hawks.
In this uncertain landscape, the world braces for an enduring superpower schism. However, it is a potential Trump-led détente that could astound us in a second term otherwise rife with predictability.
